India Must Prepare for Deficient Southwest Monsoon Amidst El Niño and Input Crisis
The southwest monsoon arrived late in Kerala, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a pessimistic forecast, predicting a deficient seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average with a 60% probability of an outright deficient year. This outlook is particularly concerning given the near-certainty of El Niño conditions, historically linked to deficient monsoons. The article stresses that the distribution of rainfall and potential long dry spells are as crucial as the total volume. Compounded by existing input crises from West Asia conflicts affecting energy and fertilizer supplies, a weak monsoon will severely impact the farm economy. The government is urged to activate relevant ministries, promote short-duration crops, and manage water resources effectively.
Key Points
- The southwest monsoon arrived late, and IMD predicts a deficient seasonal rainfall at 90% of LPA, with a high probability of an outright deficient year.
- The forecast is the most pessimistic in a decade, with El Niño conditions near-certain, historically correlating with deficient monsoons.
- Beyond total rainfall, the distribution and occurrence of long dry spells are critical for agricultural impact.
- The deficient monsoon compounds an existing input crisis due to geopolitical conflicts affecting energy and fertilizer supplies.
- Government action is crucial, including activating Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and Consumer Affairs Ministries, promoting suitable crops, and managing water resources.
Exam Facts
- Southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days past its normal date.
- IMD pegged seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA), with a 60% probability of an outright deficient year.
- Around 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have brought deficient or below-normal rains.
- Severe droughts occurred in 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2015.
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