Scientists rule out worst-case climate scenario, but warn of drastic change under current policies
Climate scientists have retired the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, which projected over 4°C warming by 2100, deeming it implausible due to rapid renewable energy adoption and climate policies. This eliminates the 'doomsday scenario' and its most severe consequences. However, scientists caution that the planet is still on track for drastic climate change under current policies, with the new highest emission scenario projecting around 3.5°C warming by 2100. The world is currently on a 'medium pathway' towards roughly 2.8°C warming by 2100, and keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C without significant overshoot appears impossible. Even moderate warming of 2°C poses severe risks like droughts and extreme rainfall.
Key Points
- Climate scientists have retired the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, which predicted over 4°C warming by 2100, due to increased renewable energy adoption and climate policies.
- While the 'doomsday scenario' is now considered implausible, the planet is still heading towards drastic climate change under current policies.
- The new highest emission scenario projects approximately 3.5°C warming by 2100, and the world is on a 'medium pathway' towards 2.8°C warming.
- Achieving the 1.5°C warming limit without significant overshoot is deemed impossible under current emissions trajectories.
- Even moderate global warming of 2°C poses severe risks, including increased droughts and extreme weather events.
Exam Facts
- The extreme climate scenario RCP8.5 has been retired.
- The new highest emission scenario projects an overall warming of around 3.5°C by 2100.
- The world is currently on a 'medium pathway' towards roughly 2.8°C of warming by 2100.
- RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) were upgraded to SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) in 2016.
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