Monsoon Arrives Late in Kerala Amid El Nino Concerns, Below-Normal Rainfall Predicted
The southwest monsoon commenced in Kerala three days late, missing its normal June 1 onset and the IMD's forecast. This delay coincides with a strengthening El Nino, which the World Meteorological Organisation predicts has an 80% chance of developing by July-August. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a below-normal monsoon, estimating 90% of the long-period average rainfall. A weak monsoon poses significant risks to India's predominantly rain-fed agricultural sector, potentially leading to tightened reservoir discharge and reduced groundwater recharge, impacting food security and rural livelihoods.
Key Points
- The southwest monsoon's onset in Kerala was delayed by three days compared to its normal date.
- The delay is linked to concerns over a strengthening El Nino, with high probability for July-August.
- The IMD has predicted a below-normal monsoon season, forecasting 90% of the long-period average rainfall.
- A poor monsoon could severely impact India's rain-fed farm sector and water resources.
- This is the first time since 2015 that the IMD's onset forecast has fallen outside its error margin.
Exam Facts
- Normal monsoon onset date in Kerala: June 1.
- IMD's monsoon forecast: 90% of the long-period average (below-normal).
- World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) El Nino probability: 80% for July and August.
- IMD forecast accuracy: First miss beyond error margin since 2015.
Read it. Retain it. Recall it.
Get spaced-repetition flashcards, daily quizzes and offline access — free on Android.