Decades of overt hostility and crisis management characterize U.S.-Iran relations, with current efforts towards a memorandum for an indefinite ceasefire facing significant obstacles. Both Washington and Tehran are motivated by the high costs of prolonged conflict, but deep mutual distrust persists. Iran suspects U.S. regime change ambitions, while the U.S. believes Iran uses negotiations to buy time for its nuclear program. Domestic opposition in both countries, particularly from hardliners in Iran's IRGC and critics in the U.S., complicates any agreement. Regional actors like Israel, prioritizing its security and nuclear monopoly, could also disrupt diplomatic momentum, making a lasting peace elusive.
- U.S.-Iran relations are marked by historical distrust, making current negotiations for a ceasefire memorandum challenging.
- Both sides are driven by the economic and political costs of ongoing hostilities but harbor deep suspicions about each other's true intentions.
- Domestic opposition from hardliners in Iran and critics in the U.S. poses significant hurdles to any peace agreement.
India has resisted China's proposal for an "early harvest" settlement of the Sikkim boundary, viewing it as an asymmetric concession. The article argues that such a move would allow Beijing to settle the Sikkim sector on its terms while leaving other disputed sectors unresolved, undermining India's strategic interests. The 2005 Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles mandates a "package settlement" across all sectors, with demarcation as the final step. China's push for early demarcation in Sikkim inverts this process and could expose the Siliguri Corridor to greater risk, especially given China's military consolidation in western Bhutan and pressure on vulnerable Bhutan.
- India should reject China's "early harvest" proposal for the Sikkim boundary, as it undermines the comprehensive "package settlement" approach.
- The 2005 Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles outlines a three-step process: political parameters, framework, then delineation and demarcation.
- Settling Sikkim in isolation would allow China to leverage its geographical advantage and increase pressure on India's territorial vulnerabilities, particularly the Siliguri Corridor.
China's growing counter-space capabilities, including anti-satellite missiles and co-orbital systems, are a significant concern, indicating a potential for orbital warfare despite its stated peaceful space program. China aims for both technological and numerical superiority in space, competing with initiatives like Starlink, and recognizes the military and economic implications of space weaponization. Its capabilities include kinetic attack systems, laser-based systems, and co-orbital satellites designed to disrupt or destroy other satellites. For India, with fewer operational satellites, this poses a vulnerability, requiring measures like expanding its space industry, disaggregating large satellite programs, strengthening ground assets, enhancing data-sharing with partners, and clearly defining red lines for a proportionate response.
- China is developing advanced counter-space capabilities, including anti-satellite missiles and co-orbital systems, raising concerns about potential orbital warfare.
- China aims to achieve space superiority by leveraging space-based assets for military and economic systems and competing technologically and numerically with rivals.
- Its offensive capabilities include kinetic attack systems (DN-3, SC-19 missiles), laser-based systems, and co-orbital satellites (SJ, TJS series) to disrupt or destroy satellites.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has highlighted the vulnerabilities of existing global trade routes and strengthened the case for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IMEC, announced at the G-20 Summit in 2023, aims to connect India with Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal, through a multimodal network of railways, ports, and digital infrastructure. However, the conflict has directly impacted envisioned corridor areas, particularly those involving Israel and the port of Haifa, and exposed geopolitical fault lines among key partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. To navigate these challenges, IMEC needs a broader, more flexible framework, exploring alternative entry points like Oman and a western spur through Egypt.
- The Iran conflict underscores the need for alternative connectivity projects like IMEC to bypass conflict zones and strategic choke points.
- IMEC, launched at the G-20 Summit in 2023, is a multimodal economic corridor connecting India with Europe via the Arabian Peninsula.
- The conflict has directly affected key IMEC components, including Israel and the port of Haifa, and revealed geopolitical divergences among partner nations.
Bangladesh has approved the Padma Barrage, a large river engineering project on the Padma river (Bangladesh's stretch of the Ganga) in Rajbari district. The 2.1-km-long barrage will impound 2.9 billion cubic metres of water, generate 113 MW hydropower, and irrigate 2.88 million hectares of farmland, affecting 37% of the country's land area. This project is Bangladesh's response to drought issues caused by reduced seasonal flows due to India's Farakka barrage upstream. Critics warn that mega-barrages often underperform, alter sediment flows, and create new ecological problems like water-logging and damage to fisheries, highlighting a regional trend of building more river barriers, contrary to global efforts to remove obsolete dams.
- Bangladesh approved the Padma Barrage project on the Padma river, its stretch of the Ganga.
- The project aims to address drought and water security issues, partly attributed to India's Farakka barrage.
- The barrage will impound 2.9 billion cubic metres of water and generate 113 MW of hydropower.
U.K. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will embark on a two-nation tour, visiting China and then India, to discuss global challenges and bolster cooperation. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) stated that ministerial engagements would cover issues like the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Ebola outbreak in Africa. In India, Ms. Cooper is scheduled to meet External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and interact with entrepreneurs, academics, and government partners to deliver on the U.K.-India Vision 2035.
- U.K. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will visit China and India for bilateral talks.
- The tour aims to address global challenges and enhance cooperation.
- Key discussion topics include the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine war, and Ebola outbreak.
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Myanmar's President U Min Aung Hlaing in New Delhi to discuss key issues related to bilateral ties. President Hlaing is on a five-day visit to India and is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enhance cooperation in trade, connectivity, border security, and defence. This visit follows his assumption of the presidency after parliamentary elections in Myanmar. Myanmar is a strategic neighbour, sharing a 1,640-kilometre border with northeastern Indian states, including Nagaland and Manipur, and is crucial for regional stability and security.
- NSA Ajit Doval met Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing in New Delhi.
- President Hlaing is on a five-day visit to India, with talks scheduled with PM Modi.
- Discussions will focus on trade, connectivity, border security, and defence cooperation.
India and Canada are opening a new chapter in their bilateral relations, focusing on economic cooperation, technological collaboration, energy security, and people-to-people connectivity. Recent visits by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlight a renewed commitment to finalize a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by end of 2026 and achieve $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. India's growing economy and Canada's expertise in natural resources, clean energy, and innovation create mutual opportunities. The Indian diaspora serves as a vital link, and Canadian pension funds are investing significantly in India's growth story, reinforcing trust and long-term commercial confidence.
- India and Canada are committed to deepening bilateral cooperation across economic, technological, energy, and people-to-people sectors.
- Both nations aim to finalize a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by the end of 2026.
- A target of $50 billion in bilateral trade has been set for 2030.
Nepal Prime Minister Balendra Shah sparked controversy by stating that Nepal has encroached upon Indian territory in several places, marking the first such public admission by a Nepali head of government. This statement was made in response to a lawmaker's question regarding the disputed Kalapani region. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs later clarified that the PM's remarks primarily referred to "cross-border occupation" in the Dasgaja area (no-man's land), where citizens of one country cultivate or reside on land belonging to the other. Lawmakers from Nepali Congress and Communist Party demanded clarification and removal of the remarks from record.
- Nepal PM Balendra Shah publicly stated that Nepal has encroached upon Indian territory in multiple locations.
- The statement was made in Parliament concerning the disputed Kalapani region.
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that the remarks referred to "cross-border occupation" in the Dasgaja area.
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is a critical waterway for global energy trade, with 20% of the world's LNG and 25% of seaborne oil passing through it. Iran views it as a strategic asset, especially given its control over key islands. The article describes how Iran effectively took control of the strait after a hypothetical U.S.-Israeli attack, weaponizing its waters and imposing restrictions on shipping. This led to soaring fuel prices and insurance costs, severely impacting energy-import-dependent economies like India. The situation highlights the strait's geopolitical significance and the ongoing diplomatic logjam over its control and related nuclear issues.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
- Iran asserts significant control over the strait due to its geographical position and ownership of strategic islands.
- A hypothetical scenario describes Iran weaponizing the strait in response to attacks, leading to severe disruptions in global energy markets.
Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh announced that a BrahMos missile deal with Vietnam has been signed, though not publicly announced. A similar pact with Indonesia is in its final stages. He made these remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, responding to questions about potential buyers of the missile system. The Philippines was the first foreign buyer of the BrahMos missile system from India. This development signifies India's growing role as a defense exporter and strengthens its strategic partnerships in Southeast Asia, enhancing regional security cooperation.
- India has signed a BrahMos missile deal with Vietnam, marking a significant step in defense exports.
- A similar BrahMos missile pact with Indonesia is currently in its final stages.
- Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh confirmed these developments at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
The RBI's Annual Report 2025-26 projects the Indian economy to remain resilient in 2026-27, despite a challenging external environment marked by elevated energy and commodity prices, rising logistics costs, and geopolitical risks. The report attributes this resilience to India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, robust domestic demand, and a stable policy environment, with relatively lower dependence on exports for growth. Globally, geopolitical risks, particularly the West Asia conflict, have re-emerged as a dominant drag on global growth and inflation forecasts, with the IMF projecting global economic growth at 3.1% in 2026.
- The RBI forecasts the Indian economy to remain resilient in 2026-27 despite global challenges.
- Key factors supporting India's resilience include strong macroeconomic fundamentals, robust domestic demand, and a stable policy environment.
- India's growth is less dependent on exports, providing a buffer against global trade uncertainties.
Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh held high-level bilateral engagements at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 in Singapore, reaffirming India's commitment to strengthening defense partnerships and regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. He met with Major-General Micheal Rosette of Seychelles to discuss deepening cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region. Discussions with Canada's Senior Associate Deputy Minister of National Defence, Kelvin Brosseau, focused on expanding defense cooperation across strategic domains. In a separate meeting with Commander Admiral Samuel J. Paparo of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, both sides reviewed military-to-military cooperation and reiterated their commitment to deepening strategic defense ties.
- Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh engaged in high-level bilateral meetings at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2026.
- India reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening defense partnerships and ensuring regional stability in the Indo-Pacific.
- Discussions were held with Seychelles on deepening maritime security cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region.
U.S. Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, announced that an interim trade agreement between India and the United States is expected to be finalized "over the next few weeks and months." Speaking at IIT, Mr. Gor highlighted India's alignment with "trusted ecosystems and resilient supply chains." He noted the significant growth in bilateral trade, from $20 billion to $220 billion in goods and services over two decades, attributing it to deeper engagement and stronger economic integration. A U.S. delegation is expected in India next week to continue trade talks, signaling progress in strengthening economic ties.
- The U.S. Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, announced that an interim trade agreement between India and the U.S. is nearing finalization.
- The deal is expected to be signed "over the next few weeks and months."
- India is aligning with "trusted ecosystems and resilient supply chains," according to the Ambassador.
Ningbo, a port city in China's Zhejiang province, has become a key hub for the country's green industrial push, particularly in Electric Vehicles (EVs). The Zeekr factory, part of Geely Auto Group, exemplifies this with its automated production and emphasis on energy efficiency. Zhejiang province leads China in green metrics, having invested billions in overhauling polluting industries and enforcing stricter emission standards. China's dominance in EV manufacturing, batteries, and critical minerals gives it a "complete supply chain" advantage, making it a global leader in green technologies. While this offers affordable green transformation to the Global South, it raises concerns for European industries facing intense Chinese competition.
- Ningbo, Zhejiang province, is a central hub for China's green industrial transformation, especially in Electric Vehicles (EVs).
- Factories like Zeekr (part of Geely Auto Group) demonstrate advanced manufacturing, automation, and energy efficiency.
- Zhejiang province has invested billions in environmental upgrades, leading to significant improvements in air and water quality.
The article argues that public international law is increasingly seen as "optional" by powerful states, leading to a fraying of the rules-based order. It highlights numerous violations of foundational principles, including the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Violations of UNCLOS, international humanitarian law, human rights treaties, and arms-control regimes are also discussed. The author contends that the impunity with which powerful states act signals that "might is right," leading to a vacuum where power determines legality and threatening global peace and stability.
- International law is increasingly disregarded by powerful states, undermining the rules-based global order.
- Violations of the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force and principles of sovereignty are becoming common.
- Examples include Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and China's actions in the South China Sea.
The recent Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting aimed to reaffirm the grouping's validity despite geopolitical shifts. Initiatives on maritime security (IPMSC, IPMDA, Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission), critical minerals, and energy security were finalized, along with a port project in Fiji. The joint statement reiterated commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and international law. However, the article notes clear constraints in language, particularly concerning U.S. engagement with China and Russia, and its unilateral moves in West Asia. Internal contradictions and the lack of a scheduled summit for 2026 suggest a potential downgrade in Quad engagement, hindering its collective pursuit of objectives.
- The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting aimed to reaffirm the group's relevance amidst geopolitical changes.
- Key initiatives finalized include maritime security collaboration, critical mineral cooperation, energy security partnership, and an infrastructure project in Fiji.
- The Quad reiterated its commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and upholding international law, including UNCLOS.
India and China held their 35th Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) meeting in Beijing. Both sides reviewed the border situation, expressed satisfaction with progress in maintaining peace and tranquillity, and discussed issues related to border delimitation, management, mechanism building, and cross-border cooperation. The Indian delegation emphasized the need for an early meeting of the Expert Level Mechanism on Trans-border Rivers. They agreed to continue diplomatic and military-level exchanges and prepare for the 25th round of Special Representatives (SR) Talks, aiming to implement consensus reached in previous rounds on the boundary question.
- The 35th WMCC meeting between India and China focused on border delimitation, management, and cooperation.
- Both nations acknowledged progress in maintaining peace and tranquillity along the border, contributing to bilateral relations.
- India specifically called for an early meeting of the Expert Level Mechanism on Trans-border Rivers.
The article defines brinkmanship as a strategy of pushing a dangerous situation to the brink of conflict to force concessions, a legacy of the Cold War. It discusses its resurgence in the post-Cold War era, particularly through terrorism and proxy conflicts, citing examples like Hamas-Israel and Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. It also analyzes how major powers like the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea employ brinkmanship, noting its impact on global stability and the displacement of traditional diplomacy. The author suggests India's strategic DNA eschews such tactics, emphasizing the need for global introspection on this dangerous trend.
- Brinkmanship involves pushing a conflict to the edge to compel an adversary to yield, a tactic with roots in the Cold War era.
- The article highlights the use of brinkmanship by non-state actors (terrorism) and in proxy conflicts, exemplified by Hamas-Israel and Pakistan/Iran's actions.
- Major powers like the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea utilize various forms of brinkmanship, from economic coercion to military posturing, impacting global geopolitical stability.
The Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in Congo and Uganda has exposed a critical gap in international vaccine preparedness, as there is no licensed vaccine for this rare species. The article explains the complex and costly process of vaccine development, requiring BSL-4 facilities, primate trials, and substantial funding. It highlights that neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) like Bundibugyo ebolavirus suffer from "neglect" due to small commercial markets, lack of financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies, and the diseases primarily affecting poor, rural, and politically marginalized populations. Despite international declarations and initiatives, R&D remains patchy, compounded by weak healthcare systems.
- The Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak reveals a lack of licensed vaccines for this specific species.
- Vaccine development for such rare and neglected diseases is hindered by high costs, limited commercial incentives, and weak R&D infrastructure.
- Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) disproportionately affect poor and marginalized populations, leading to insufficient investment.
The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective from January 1, 2026, aims to prevent carbon leakage by imposing a carbon-linked charge on imports based on embedded emissions. This policy will significantly impact carbon-intensive Indian exports like steel, cement, and aluminium, making them costlier. CBAM also poses indirect price pressures on India's fertilizer imports, as key exporters to the EU are also major suppliers to India, potentially increasing global fertilizer prices and jeopardizing India's agricultural sector. India needs a two-pronged strategy of domestic reforms and effective international negotiations.
- CBAM is an EU climate policy tool designed to prevent carbon leakage by taxing carbon-intensive imports.
- It will directly impact India's steel, cement, and aluminium exports to the EU and indirectly affect fertilizer prices.
- India needs to invest in clean energy and implement stricter carbon policies domestically.
India's energy strategy requires a price correction due to global energy shocks, particularly from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the government has shielded consumers through state intervention, supply diversification, and public sector oil companies absorbing costs, this approach is economically unsustainable long-term. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are under severe financial stress, selling fuel below market-linked costs. The article argues that India's economy remains structurally vulnerable to imported fossil fuels. A calibrated, gradual increase in petroleum prices is suggested to reduce the fiscal burden, stabilize OMCs, encourage efficient consumption, and prepare the public for prolonged energy uncertainty.
- Global energy shocks, particularly from the Strait of Hormuz, necessitate a price correction in India's energy strategy.
- The current strategy of shielding consumers through state intervention and OMC absorption of costs is unsustainable.
- Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are facing significant financial stress due to selling fuel below market prices.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's four-day visit to India aimed to mend bilateral ties, which had been strained by issues such as US tariffs, visa restrictions, sanctions on India's energy procurement, and critical remarks by President Trump. India faced immense economic worries due to regional conflicts and the Hormuz Strait blockade. Despite hopes for significant repair, the visit yielded few notable outcomes beyond a critical minerals cooperation agreement. The article suggests that the US failed to acknowledge India's concerns, but the upcoming Modi-Trump meeting at the G-7 Summit in France offers another opportunity to address these frayed relations, particularly in economic, energy, and regional security domains.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit aimed to repair strained India-US bilateral ties.
- Key issues causing strain included US tariffs, visa restrictions, and sanctions on India's energy procurement.
- India faced significant economic and energy security concerns due to regional conflicts and the Hormuz Strait blockade.
The Quad grouping pledged to enhance cooperation in maritime and energy domains at the 11th Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting. Key initiatives launched include the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration and the expansion of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness, providing near real-time commercial maritime data. These measures respond to challenges in the Persian Gulf and South China Sea, emphasizing freedom of navigation in critical waterways like the Strait of Hormuz. India will host the next 'Quad at Sea mission,' and the grouping also announced the Quad Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security and the Quad Ports of the Future Partnership.
- Quad nations pledged enhanced cooperation in maritime and energy security.
- New initiatives include Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration and expanded Maritime Domain Awareness.
- The context for these plans includes tensions in the Persian Gulf and South China Sea, with an emphasis on freedom of navigation.