During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel, both nations reaffirmed their 'special strategic partnership.' Modi emphasized that India's security interests are directly linked to stability in West Asia. The discussions focused on implementing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA) projects. Despite regional tensions between Iran and the U.S., India maintains its stance on resolving conflicts through dialogue and peaceful means. The visit also saw progress toward a Free Trade Agreement and cooperation in fields like geophysical exploration, AI-driven mineral discovery, and sustainable resource development.
- India and Israel are working closely to implement the IMEC and I2U2 projects to enhance regional connectivity and food security.
- The bilateral relationship has been elevated to a 'special strategic partnership' with a focus on defense, technology, and culture.
- Both nations are preparing for an 'early signing of a Free Trade Agreement' to boost economic ties and market access.
The United Kingdom has paused a bill to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius to hold discussions with the United States. The treaty, signed in May 2025, includes a 99-year lease for the strategic military base on Diego Garcia to the UK. However, shifting political positions in the US have prompted a reconsideration of the deal's long-term security implications. The archipelago's status is a major issue in Indian Ocean geopolitics, involving decolonization and the maintenance of a joint UK-US military presence vital for regional operations.
- The treaty would recognize Mauritius's sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago while leasing Diego Garcia to the UK.
- Diego Garcia is a critical joint UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean.
- The pause in legislation follows concerns raised by US political figures regarding the base's security.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, emphasizing India's uncompromising policy of zero tolerance for terrorism. He condemned the October 7 attacks as barbaric and expressed support for the Gaza Peace Initiative to ensure regional stability. The visit focused on enhancing bilateral ties in water management, agriculture, and technology. Modi highlighted the historical presence of Jewish communities in Kerala, West Bengal, and Maharashtra, noting the absence of discrimination. He also discussed an ambitious Free Trade Agreement and the potential of the Abraham Accords to foster courage and vision in West Asian relations.
- India maintains a consistent policy of zero tolerance for terrorism with no double standards.
- The Gaza Peace Initiative is viewed as a necessary pathway to sustain the process of peace-building in the region.
- Bilateral cooperation is expanding into digital public infrastructure and cross-border financial linkages.
This article examines 'Agreements on Reciprocal Trade' (ARTs) introduced by the Trump administration, which differ from traditional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Unlike FTAs, ARTs are often not signed under WTO's GATT Article XXIV, making them legally suspicious under international law. These agreements frequently include 'America First' provisions, such as the power to impose unilateral tariffs or restrict data sovereignty. The U.S.-India trade deal and agreements with countries like Bangladesh are cited as examples. These deals represent a shift toward managed trade and bilateralism, potentially undermining the multilateral WTO framework.
- ARTs often bypass WTO rules on non-discrimination and the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle.
- These agreements allow the U.S. to maintain trade barriers while demanding concessions from partner nations.
- They often include clauses that restrict the domestic policy space and data sovereignty of the partner country.
Four years since the invasion began in February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to severely impact global and domestic economies. A World Bank report estimates Ukraine's post-war reconstruction cost at $558 billion. In both nations, essential food prices have skyrocketed; for instance, rice prices in Russia rose by 40% compared to 2022. Ukraine's GDP contracted by 30% in 2022, while Russia faces long-term stagnation due to sanctions. Defense spending has surged to over 20% of Ukraine's GDP and nearly 30% of Russia's total expenditure, leading to decreased allocations for social sectors like education and healthcare.
- Reconstruction costs for Ukraine are estimated at nearly three times its projected 2025 GDP.
- Inflation in Russia reached 14% in 2022 and remains volatile due to ongoing conflict and sanctions.
- Both countries have significantly diverted funds from social welfare and infrastructure to military spending.
India has shifted to a proactive trade strategy, pursuing comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with major economies like the UAE, Australia, and the UK. The goal is to increase total exports to $2 trillion by 2030, as outlined in the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023. These agreements aim to integrate Indian firms into global value chains, particularly in high-growth sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals. The strategy emphasizes 'strategic autonomy' while reducing dependence on single geographies. Recent milestones include an interim agreement with the U.S. and ongoing negotiations for a historic FTA with the European Union.
- India aims for $2 trillion in total exports by 2030 under the Foreign Trade Policy 2023.
- FTAs are being utilized as strategic instruments for both economic growth and diplomatic influence.
- The strategy focuses on diversifying export destinations to ensure economic resilience against global shocks.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled for a standalone two-day visit to Israel in February 2026, marking his second visit since 2017. The visit aims to deepen the 'de-hyphenated' strategic partnership amidst regional instability in West Asia. Key focus areas include defense cooperation, specifically in UAVs and missile systems like the Barak-8, and the progress of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Israel is India's second-largest trading partner in Asia, with bilateral trade reaching $3.75 billion. Discussions are also expected to cover a potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and cooperation in high-tech sectors like AI.
- India maintains a 'de-hyphenated' policy, engaging with Israel independently of its relations with Palestine.
- Defense remains a cornerstone of the relationship, with Israel providing cutting-edge surveillance and missile technology.
- The IMEC project is a strategic priority for regional connectivity and trade diversification.
India's trade delegation recently postponed a trip to Washington intended to finalize an Interim Agreement with the U.S. This delay comes amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, including U.S. court rulings affecting President Trump's ability to levy tariffs. India aims to import $500 billion worth of energy, aircraft, and technology from the U.S. over the next five years. Simultaneously, India's imports of Russian crude oil have fallen to a 38-month low as of December 2025, with Russia's share dropping below 25%. The article analyzes the complex interplay between tariff threats, energy security, and international trade agreements.
- India has a target to import $500 billion in goods from the U.S., including energy and defense equipment.
- Russian crude oil imports to India hit a 38-month low in late 2025 due to various market and geopolitical pressures.
- U.S. legal experts suggest the President may lack executive authority to levy tariffs on India without Congressional backing.
India has joined the Pax Silica alliance, a U.S.-led coalition focused on securing infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and critical minerals. This strategic move aims to bolster domestic initiatives like IndiaAI and the National Critical Mineral Mission by securing raw materials and attracting investment. While the alliance offers a 'trusted ecosystem' and a shift away from China-centric supply chains, it poses risks of Chinese economic retaliation and rigid export controls. India must balance its preference for 'issue-based alignments' with the potential constraints of a formal technological bloc that could influence its domestic AI regulations and security standards.
- Pax Silica focuses on building secure technology networks for AI, semiconductors, and critical mineral processing.
- India provides significant engineering talent and assembly capacity, adding geopolitical weight to the coalition's efforts.
- The alliance aims to establish democratic governance standards for critical technologies to counter non-democratic influences.
The U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled 6-3 that President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally impose tariffs was unlawful without clear congressional authorization. The court found that IEEPA does not grant the executive power to tax or regulate trade to such an extent. This ruling impacts various countries, including India, which faced a 50% tariff hike linked to its purchase of Russian oil. While some existing tariffs under other laws remain, the ruling establishes a significant check on executive overreach in trade policy, potentially easing pressure on bilateral trade negotiations.
- The ruling restricts the President's ability to use emergency powers for imposing unlimited tariffs without legislative oversight.
- The court emphasized the necessity of 'clear congressional authorization' for the executive to exercise taxation-like economic powers.
- India had been specifically targeted with high tariffs due to Washington's objections to New Delhi purchasing oil from Russia.
Admiral Stephen T. Koehler, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, emphasized the critical role of the Indian and U.S. Navies in safeguarding sovereignty and ensuring stability in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the Indo-Pacific. Speaking at the International Fleet Review (IFR) and MILAN-2026 in Visakhapatnam, he highlighted the growing operational cooperation through joint exercises like Malabar, MILAN, and RIMPAC. Both navies operate similar platforms like P-8I aircraft and MH-60R helicopters, enhancing interoperability. The Admiral noted that India's naval capabilities are central to maintaining freedom of navigation in these vital trade routes.
- The U.S. and Indian Navies are increasing cooperation to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific against various maritime challenges.
- Joint exercises such as Malabar, MILAN, and RIMPAC are key to enhancing naval interoperability and combined strength.
- Both navies utilize common platforms, including P-8I maritime patrol aircraft and MH-60R Seahawk helicopters for anti-submarine warfare.
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed strong opposition to the U.K.'s draft legislation intended to transfer the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Located in the central Indian Ocean, the archipelago includes the strategic U.S.-U.K. military base at Diego Garcia. While the deal includes a 99-year lease for the base, Trump labeled the transfer an 'act of great stupidity,' citing potential security risks and the influence of China in Mauritius. The deal follows a 2019 ICJ advisory ruling stating that the decolonization of Mauritius was incomplete without the Chagos Islands.
- The U.K. plans to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius while retaining the Diego Garcia military base.
- The Chagos Islands are strategically located in the central Indian Ocean, approximately 1,600 km from India.
- President Trump opposes the deal, fearing it compromises the security of the Diego Garcia base and increases Chinese influence.
The AI Impact Summit concluded in New Delhi with 85 countries and three international organizations signing the 'New Delhi Declaration.' Guided by the principle of 'Sarvajan Hitaya, Sarvajan Sukhaya' (Welfare for all, Happiness for all), the declaration establishes a voluntary, non-binding framework to ensure the benefits of AI are shared equitably across humanity. Key outcomes include the launch of the 'Global AI Impact Commons,' a repository for AI tools and best practices, and the 'Charter for the Democratic Diffusion of AI.' The summit highlighted the need for AI literacy, workforce development, and secure, trustworthy AI ecosystems.
- The New Delhi Declaration promotes a voluntary framework for equitable access to AI resources and resilient AI ecosystems.
- The 'Global AI Impact Commons' will serve as a database for countries to draw inspiration for AI implementation and best practices.
- India launched its first domestically trained multi-billion parameter Large Language Model (LLM) by Sarvam AI during the event.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met in New Delhi to strengthen bilateral ties. The two nations signed significant agreements focusing on rare earth and critical minerals, and steel mining, aimed at diversifying supply chains away from Chinese dominance. They set an ambitious bilateral trade target of $30 billion annually by 2030, up from the current $12-15 billion. The leaders also discussed the impact of U.S. tariff shifts and emphasized their roles as leading democracies of the Global South, advocating for multilateralism and a digital partnership for the future.
- India and Brazil signed a pioneering agreement focusing on renewable energy and critical minerals to diversify global supply chains.
- The bilateral trade target has been set at $30 billion per year by 2030, doubling current estimates.
- Both nations emphasized their identity as the two biggest democracies of the Global South and committed to defending multilateralism.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down President Trump’s 'reciprocal tariffs' imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing an overstep of authority. In response, the Trump administration announced a temporary 150-day, 15% baseline tariff on all imports using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. India's Commerce Ministry is studying the implications, especially as aluminium and steel exports to the U.S. have already seen a 66% decline due to previous Section 232 duties. The ruling potentially renders recent trade deals one-sided, prompting calls for India to re-examine its interim trade pact.
- The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that reciprocal tariffs exceeded presidential authority, leading to a new 15% baseline tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
- India's steel and aluminium exports are significantly impacted, as they constitute the fourth-largest export group to the U.S.
- The suspension of 'de minimis' exemptions for low-value shipments further affects small Indian e-commerce exporters.
The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 ruling, has struck down President Donald Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed on various countries, including India. The court ruled that the President exceeded his authority under the 1977 emergency powers law, asserting that the constitutional power to impose taxes and tariffs resides solely with Congress. The ruling nullifies billions in collected import taxes and opens the door for companies to seek refunds. While the decision limits executive overreach in trade policy, the administration may still seek to maintain the tariff framework under different legal authorities.
- The 6-3 decision emphasizes that the U.S. Constitution vests the power of taxation in the Legislative Branch, not the Executive.
- The ruling specifically targets tariffs imposed under a national emergency declaration intended to address trade deficits.
- Major companies like Costco are now expected to seek refunds for billions of dollars paid in tariffs since 2025.
The Indian Navy conducted a high-profile Operational Demonstration in Visakhapatnam as part of the MILAN-2026 naval exercise. The demonstration featured three MiG-29K carrier-based fighter aircraft firing flares, illustrating India's advanced maritime strike capabilities. MILAN is a biennial multilateral naval exercise hosted by India, designed to foster 'Camaraderie, Cohesion, and Collaboration' among friendly foreign navies. The exercise serves as a platform for participating nations to share best practices and enhance interoperability in the strategic Indian Ocean Region, reinforcing India's role as a net security provider.
- MILAN-2026 is a major biennial multilateral naval exercise hosted by the Indian Navy.
- The exercise focuses on enhancing professional interaction and interoperability between international navies.
- Operational demonstrations in Visakhapatnam showcased India's naval aviation assets, including the MiG-29K.
Former Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane highlighted that the 'unresolved' nature of the India-China boundary is the primary driver of bilateral problems. Unlike the clearly defined India-Bangladesh border, the boundary with China remains 'nebulous,' leading to frequent clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) due to differing perceptions. Naravane emphasized that while boundary issues can be resolved through dialogue, India will not accept unilateral attempts by China to change the status quo through force. He stressed the importance of existing agreements to prevent escalation during border face-offs.
- The lack of a mutually recognized boundary map is the fundamental cause of India-China border tensions.
- Clashes along the LAC are often the result of differing perceptions of where the border lies.
- India maintains a firm stance against the 'unilateral use of force' to alter border realities.
Iran's geopolitical significance is re-emerging as global powers navigate its nuclear program and regional influence. Following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, tensions rose, but recent diplomatic shifts suggest a potential for renewed negotiations. For India, Iran remains a vital partner for energy security and regional connectivity through the Chabahar Port, which provides access to Central Asia and Afghanistan. However, India must navigate complex dynamics, including U.S. sanctions and Iran's relations with Arab Gulf powers, while maintaining its strategic autonomy in West Asian policy.
- The JCPOA (2015) remains the primary framework for international negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.
- Chabahar Port is a critical Indian investment for connectivity to Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
- India must balance its strategic ties with Iran against pressure from U.S. sanctions and regional rivalries.
Swiss President Guy Parmelin announced that Geneva will host the 2027 AI Impact Summit, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) serving as the partner for the 2028 edition. The summit aims to promote global governance of Artificial Intelligence, ensuring it is not dominated solely by major powers like the U.S. and China, who currently control over 70% of the industry. During a meeting with Prime Minister Modi, both leaders discussed bilateral cooperation in innovation and the benefits of the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) between India and the EFTA.
- Geneva, Switzerland, is designated as the host for the 2027 AI Impact Summit.
- The UAE will partner for the Geneva summit and host the subsequent 2028 AI Impact Summit.
- The initiative seeks to democratize AI governance and include smaller nations in technological decision-making.
The governance of AI in the military domain (REAIM) is a critical global challenge due to national security implications. While some nations have signed the 'Pathways to Action' declaration, major powers like the US, India, and China have shown strategic reluctance. The primary concern is the development of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). India maintains that a legally binding instrument on LAWS is premature given regional security concerns. The article suggests a non-binding framework rooted in accountability and transparency as a starting point, eventually leading to legally binding norms as AI deployment in combat becomes more frequent.
- The REAIM summit focuses on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain.
- Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are a major point of contention in international disarmament talks.
- Strategic reluctance stems from AI's dual-use nature and the difficulty of verifying compliance with military constraints.
India and France have extended their defense cooperation agreement for another decade during the sixth India-France Annual Defence Dialogue in Bengaluru. Key discussions focused on increasing 'indigenous content' in Rafale jets to 50% and expanding Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities within India. The partnership aims to enhance military-to-military cooperation and co-development of niche technologies. Both nations reaffirmed their commitment to regional stability in the Indian Ocean Region, with India positioning itself as a first responder and net security provider. The agreement underscores the enduring Indo-French strategic alignment and shared security interests.
- The defense cooperation agreement between India and France is renewed for a 10-year period.
- India seeks to increase indigenous content in Rafale jets to 50% and expand domestic MRO facilities.
- The partnership emphasizes co-development and co-production of defense equipment and niche technology.
Shashi Tharoor analyzes the erosion of the post-1945 liberal international order, highlighting how multilateralism is being undermined by unilateral actions from major powers. The retreat from international agreements, the weaponization of trade, and the disregard for sovereignty in conflicts like Ukraine signal a shift toward 'might is right.' The article emphasizes that urgent global challenges like pandemics and climate change require collective action, yet the current vacuum in leadership leads to a fragmented global governance system. This transition from a rules-based system to one dictated by raw power threatens the legitimacy of international institutions and global stability.
- The post-WWII order based on international law and institutions is being replaced by power politics.
- Multilateralism is failing as major powers withdraw from international frameworks and ignore sovereignty.
- Global issues like climate change and pandemics cannot be solved by nations acting alone, requiring functional global governance.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Geneva for a second round of nuclear talks with the U.S. and the IAEA. These discussions occur amidst heightened regional tensions, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducts 'live-fire intensive drills' near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The drills, named 'Smart Control of Hormuz Strait', aim to test the readiness of Iran's naval forces. While Iran seeks a 'fair and equitable deal' regarding its nuclear program, the simultaneous military maneuvers signal a dual approach of diplomacy and deterrence in the face of increased U.S. naval presence.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman.
- Talks involve the U.S., Iran, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to address nuclear concerns.
- The IRGC's drills are a response to the U.S. sending a second aircraft carrier to the region and threats of force.