El Niño poses significant risk to India's economy, impacting agriculture, inflation, and growth
A potential 'super' El Niño and weak monsoon rainfall, with a 40% deficit in June and "below normal" forecast for July, threaten India's economy. A poor monsoon could reduce agricultural output, depress rural incomes, fuel food inflation, and slow GDP growth. CRISIL projects maize acreage decline and potential shifts to pulses, while the RBI warns of an adverse impact on growth-inflation outlook. Past El Niño years (1972, 1982, 2009, 2015) saw significant agricultural output contractions and double-digit inflation. Experts urge India to 'drought-proof' its economy through investments in irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and risk-reduction measures.
Key Points
- A weak monsoon, exacerbated by El Niño conditions, threatens India's economy through reduced agricultural output, lower rural incomes, and increased food inflation.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts "below normal" rainfall for July, following a 40% deficit in June.
- Past El Niño years, such as 1972, 1982, 2009, and 2015, led to significant agricultural contractions and high inflation.
- Experts recommend 'drought-proofing' the economy by investing in irrigation, developing drought-resistant crops, and implementing ex-ante risk reduction measures.
- The current kharif season started strong with foodgrain output of 357.73 million metric tonnes in 2024-25, now at risk.
Exam Facts
- IMD forecast "below normal" rainfall for July (less than 94% of usual).
- June monsoon ended with a 40% deficit.
- Foodgrain output in 2024-25 was 357.73 million metric tonnes.
- Agriculture accounts for one-fifth of India's GVA and employs 46% of the workforce.
- El Niño years with worst droughts: 1972, 1982, 2009, 2015.
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