Zahed Ur Rahman, Information and Broadcasting Adviser to Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, was stopped at Delhi airport on June 14 because his name was on a "blacklist" generated by India's External Affairs Ministry in 2025. He was traveling on a regular passport with a SAARC visa to attend an Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) meeting. The blacklist entry was reportedly due to his past anti-India remarks on social media. Although the Bangladesh High Commission intervened and the immigration notice was withdrawn, Mr. Rahman chose to return to Dhaka after a two-hour delay. India's Union government maintains a negative list for foreign nationals involved in anti-India activities or heinous crimes.
- Bangladesh PM's adviser, Zahed Ur Rahman, was initially denied entry at Delhi airport due to being on an Indian "blacklist."
- The blacklist entry was reportedly linked to his past anti-India remarks made on social media platforms.
- Despite the immigration notice being withdrawn after diplomatic intervention, Mr. Rahman decided to return to Dhaka.
India and the United Kingdom have announced July 15 as the implementation date for their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), overcoming last-minute differences over steel import duties. The deal, initially set for April/May 2026 implementation, was delayed by a new U.K. regulation in May that cut duty-free steel import quotas by 60% and doubled tariffs on above-quota imports to 50%. A team from India negotiated to resolve the issue. PM Modi expressed optimism that the agreement will significantly boost bilateral trade and investment. The CETA will remove tariffs on 99% of U.K. product lines and includes the implementation of the Agreement on Social Security (Double Contribution Convention).
- India and the U.K. have finalized July 15 as the implementation date for their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
- The implementation was previously delayed due to new U.K. steel import tariff regulations that significantly reduced duty-free quotas.
- The CETA aims to boost bilateral trade and investment by removing tariffs on 99% of U.K. product lines.
Indian shipowners are cautiously optimistic about the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, awaiting clarity on its terms and conditions before expecting full normalcy in 30-60 days. They are seeking government assistance for the evacuation of 34 Indian-interest vessels, including 16 fertilizer carriers crucial for the kharif season, and nine energy supply vessels. Naval escorts and other protective measures are being planned. The government has identified 539 Indian seafarers on Indian-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, with 3,600 already evacuated. The Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool, designed to mitigate war-risk insurance costs, has been ineffective due to lack of trust and transparency. Significant cargo volumes remain stranded at ports, prompting government relief measures for cargo handling and storage.
- Indian shipowners are cautiously awaiting the full details and implementation of the U.S.-Iran peace deal before resuming normal operations.
- The Indian government is planning naval escorts and protective measures to evacuate 34 Indian-interest vessels, including critical fertilizer and energy ships, from the Gulf region.
- The Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool, intended to reduce war-risk insurance costs, has not been effective due to systemic issues.
The Pentagon announced it is restoring the name of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to the U.S. Pacific Command, reversing a 2018 decision. This change does not alter the command's area of responsibility, which spans from India's western part to America's Pacific coastline. The Department of War stated that the renaming "honours the command's deep historical roots, fostering a sense of pride and collective spirit." The previous renaming in 2018 to "Indo-Pacific Command" was a nod to the growing importance of the Indian Ocean in U.S. strategic thinking.
- The U.S. military is reverting its "Indo-Pacific Command" name back to "Pacific Command."
- The change is symbolic, honoring historical roots, and does not affect the command's geographical area of responsibility.
- The original addition of "Indo" in 2018 reflected the increasing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean region for the U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that an accord with Iran to end the West Asia war would be signed "shortly," possibly within days, though he expressed uncertainty about the exact date and his personal attendance. He stated readiness to "bomb the hell" out of Iran if the agreement was violated but believed Iran did not want conflict. Trump also mentioned sending a copy of the accord to Israel and recalled ordering the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Senior U.S. officials confirmed Iran's agreement to dilute enriched uranium stocks under the interim deal, calling it a major win for the U.S.
- President Trump announced an imminent signing of an accord with Iran to end the West Asia war, though specific timing and his presence were uncertain.
- Trump reiterated a strong stance against any violation of the agreement by Iran, threatening military action.
- The U.S. shared a copy of the accord with Israel, indicating ongoing regional consultations.
An interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Iran and the U.S. could lift naval blockades and restore maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. The U.S. has agreed to lift Treasury Department sanctions on Iranian oil exports and related services like banking and insurance. This would allow previously sanctioned tankers to operate freely. Iran, however, may seek to impose service fees and reporting requirements for transiting ships, which global shipping opposes. The deal's finalization is uncertain, with details yet to be made public and ongoing negotiations.
- The U.S.-Iran interim MoU aims to restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
- The agreement would facilitate banking, insurance, and transportation services for Iranian oil, removing restrictions on tankers.
- While the U.S. opposes tolls, Iran may seek to impose service fees and reporting for transiting ships.
Bangladesh has signed off on a new Padma barrage, located 180 km downstream of India's Farakka barrage, to control the Padma river (Ganga in Bangladesh) and address seasonal water scarcity. The 2.1-km-long structure, costing Tk 50,443 crore (Rs 39,170 crore), aims to store 2,900 million cubic meters of water for 6.5 crore people. While intended to ensure water security, experts warn of significant environmental costs, including reduced groundwater recharge, increased salinity in Sundarbans, and impacts on fisherfolk. The project highlights growing dam-building trends in South Asia and raises questions about fiscal federalism and India's role in the region, as India has not directly commented on the project.
- Bangladesh is constructing a new Padma barrage downstream of India's Farakka barrage to manage water resources and combat scarcity.
- The project aims to provide water for a large population but faces criticism for potential environmental damage, including impacts on the Sundarbans.
- The Farakka barrage, built by India, has been a point of contention for Bangladesh regarding water flow.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France. Modi raised concerns about the safety of Indian seafarers, particularly after three were killed in a U.S. strike off the Oman coast, and commended Trump's efforts for peace in West Asia. Both leaders agreed on the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for trade. Trump praised Modi, called him a "tough negotiator," and stated that the U.S. and India were "very close" to finalizing a trade deal, despite previous delays. The leaders also reviewed cooperation in trade, energy, defence, technology, and people-to-people ties.
- PM Modi raised the issue of Indian seafarers' safety with U.S. President Trump during their bilateral meeting at the G7 Summit in France.
- Both leaders emphasized the importance of maintaining open trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz for the global economy.
- President Trump praised PM Modi's leadership and expressed confidence in finalizing a U.S.-India trade deal soon.
The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is currently examining Canada's application to become an observer at the 28th meeting of the Committee of Senior Officials in New Delhi. Sanjiv Ranjan, IORA's Secretary-General, stated that member states could benefit from Canada's expertise in various maritime domains, including safety, security, and connectivity, given its status as a significant maritime power. Ranjan also welcomed the potential US-Iran peace deal, which could end hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, and highlighted disaster response and climate change mitigation as key priorities for IORA in the Indian Ocean region.
- Canada's application for observer status in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is under review.
- IORA member states could benefit from Canada's expertise in maritime safety, security, and connectivity.
- Sanjiv Ranjan, IORA's Secretary-General, welcomed the potential US-Iran peace deal and its implications for the Strait of Hormuz.
Following a US-Iran understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, LNG shipping is expected to be a key focus area for transit. The US Vice President indicated the Strait would reopen "toll-free" for the long term, with demining and pre-war traffic levels resuming within weeks. Qatari officials reported that LNG output could rise to 83% of original capacity, with 17% previously damaged by war attacks. Shipping observers anticipate LNG ships will be among the first to exit, which is crucial for India's fertilizer production. Qatar and UAE LNG exports constitute a significant portion of global supply, heavily oriented towards Asia.
- The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen for shipping "toll-free" following a US-Iran understanding.
- LNG shipping is identified as a critical area for resuming transit, vital for global energy supply and India's fertilizer needs.
- Qatari LNG output, previously affected by war, is projected to recover significantly.
India's textile and apparel exports declined by 2% year-on-year in FY2025-2026, totaling $35.80 billion, down from $36.61 billion in FY25. Despite this, a significant rupee depreciation against the US dollar (from 86.60 to 94.83) aided exporters. While orders from the US faced challenges due to tariff threats, demand from China, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka improved, balancing regional trade. The industry hopes for a market revival with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and the end of the US-Iran war, with AEPC planning buyer-seller meets in the EU.
- India's textile and apparel exports saw a 2% decline in FY2025-2026, reaching $35.80 billion.
- The depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar significantly aided exporters during this period.
- While US orders faced tariff-related challenges, demand from other Asian markets like China and Bangladesh improved.
The article argues that India is experiencing American unilateralism under the "America First" policy, where the US demands subordination without commensurate benefits. Historically, countries partnered with the US for security, market access, and technology in exchange for strategic autonomy. However, the Trump administration's approach, characterized by extended export controls on AI technologies and disregard for Indian concerns in the Iran conflict, reveals a shift towards dominance without hegemony. This bipartisan American consensus, where sheer power takes center stage, makes US partnerships costly to maintain and leave, urging India to recognize strategic autonomy as elementary realism.
- India is increasingly facing American unilateralism under the "America First" policy, which prioritizes US dominance without reciprocal benefits.
- The traditional bargain of strategic autonomy for security and economic advantages from the US is eroding.
- US actions, such as export controls on AI technologies and disregard for Indian concerns in the Iran conflict, exemplify this unilateral approach.
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed support for Myanmar's recently elected counterpart Min Aung Hlaing, who is battling rebels, and called for advancing China-funded strategic projects. Xi emphasized China's priority on ties with Myanmar in its neighborhood diplomacy, stating that China supports the new Myanmar government in coordinating development and security. He highlighted Myanmar's importance as a neighbor with the longest shared border, affirming China as a trustworthy friend and partner. Min Aung Hlaing was on a five-day visit to Beijing for talks.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping affirmed support for Myanmar's leader Min Aung Hlaing amidst internal conflicts.
- China prioritizes its relationship with Myanmar as part of its neighborhood diplomacy.
- Both leaders discussed advancing China-funded strategic projects in Myanmar.
The US-Iran deal, while a diplomatic achievement, has complex long-term implications for West Asia and global powers. It signals a shift in US foreign policy, moving away from its traditional allies in the Gulf and potentially creating new regional alignments. The deal could empower Iran, allowing it to replenish its missile arsenal and assert greater influence, while Gulf states may seek new security guarantees. The article also highlights the broader geopolitical context, with Russia and China observing US engagement in the region. For India, the deal necessitates a recalibration of its strategic approach, balancing ties with all regional actors and global powers.
- The US-Iran deal represents a significant shift in US foreign policy, impacting its traditional alliances and regional dynamics in West Asia.
- The deal could empower Iran, allowing it to strengthen its military capabilities and assert greater regional influence.
- Gulf states may seek new security arrangements and diversify their partnerships in response to the changing regional landscape.
The US-Iran peace memorandum offers a rare chance to reduce tensions, but its permanence hinges on Israel's willingness to accept a new regional order where Iran is not a permanent enemy. For decades, Israel opposed US-Iran rapprochement, using the "Iranian threat" to justify deeper military cooperation with the US and Arab states, diverting attention from the Palestinian issue. A successful US-Iran deal would shift focus back to Palestine, intensifying scrutiny on Israeli policies. The regional mood is moving towards de-escalation, with Arab states embracing stability over confrontation. Israel, however, remains at odds with this consensus, potentially leading to further isolation if it obstructs the deal.
- The US-Iran peace memorandum's success depends on Israel's acceptance of Iran as a legitimate regional actor, not a permanent enemy.
- Israel has historically opposed US-Iran rapprochement, using the perceived Iranian threat to bolster its security ties and divert attention from the Palestinian issue.
- A lasting US-Iran deal would inevitably shift international focus back to the Palestinian issue, increasing scrutiny on Israeli policies.
The US-Iran ceasefire, though repeatedly breached, underscores that military force alone cannot resolve conflicts without political settlements. The recent US-Iran deal, compelled by setbacks on both sides, is a strategic win for Iran, securing the reopening of Hormuz Strait, lifting oil sanctions, and committing Iran not to produce nuclear weapons. However, the deal does not alter Iran's role as a regional disruptor, with its reliance on non-state actors and replenished missile arsenal. Israel remains opposed, viewing the deal as a setback, while Gulf countries, initially betting on US security, now face exposed fragilities and are recalibrating relations amidst growing regional divergences and external power shifts.
- The US-Iran deal, while a strategic win for Iran, is a fragile peace that doesn't resolve deeper regional rivalries.
- Israel remains vehemently opposed to the deal, viewing it as a compromise that undermines its security interests.
- Gulf countries, initially aligning with the US, are now exposed to fragilities and are recalibrating their strategic partnerships.
The US and Iran reached a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end hostilities, lift blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and pave the way for nuclear talks, marking a strategic shift where Iran resisted US maximalist demands. Israel, which pushed for the war, is now isolated. The author argues that Iran won by not losing, while the US failed to achieve its goals. Despite the MoU being a first step, it highlights the need for diplomacy and stability in West Asia. The US underestimated Iran's resolve and strategic depth, and the prospects for a negotiated outcome are real, as Iran urgently needs economic relief.
- The US and Iran signed an MoU to end hostilities and lift blockades, signaling a diplomatic shift after a period of conflict.
- Iran achieved a strategic win by resisting US maximalist demands and securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israel, which advocated for military action against Iran, is now isolated and frustrated by the US-Iran agreement.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted bilateral meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and UAE ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Evian. Modi described his meeting with PM Starmer as "wonderful," noting the outstanding India-U.K. relations and the economic cooperation fostered by the signed trade deal. He also met MbZ, discussing ways to strengthen their partnership and thanking the UAE for supporting the Indian expatriate community, especially after recent attacks in West Asia.
- PM Modi held bilateral discussions with UK PM Keir Starmer and UAE ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the G7 Summit.
- Discussions with PM Starmer focused on enhancing India-U.K. ties and operationalizing the signed trade deal.
- Modi thanked the UAE for its care of the Indian expatriate community, particularly in light of recent West Asia conflicts.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Evian, France, for their fourth meeting in less than a year. Discussions focused on trade, economy, energy, technology, and people-to-people ties. Modi expressed hope to visit Canada and finalize an India-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) soon. He highlighted Canada as a potential major partner in energy security, noting the CAD $2.6 billion commercial agreement for uranium supply (2027-2035) signed in March. The meeting occurred amidst past accusations by Canada regarding Indian agents' involvement in the killing of a pro-Khalistan individual.
- PM Modi and Canadian PM Mark Carney held bilateral talks at the G7 Summit, their fourth meeting in under a year.
- Key discussion areas included trade, economy, energy security, technology, and people-to-people ties.
- India aims to finalize a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Canada soon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in a G7 session on "Forging New Partnerships and Rebuilding International Solidarity" in London, emphasizing a global shortage of trust. He stated that mutual trust is the most important strategic asset and urged countries to move beyond a donor-recipient paradigm, working as equals in development. Modi highlighted India's leadership role for middle-income and poorer countries and its efforts in Africa, focusing on training, water, agriculture, energy, and capacity building. He also met U.S. President Donald Trump for the first time since February 2025.
- PM Modi stressed the global shortage of trust as a critical issue, advocating for its rebuilding in international partnerships.
- He urged a shift from donor-recipient models to partnerships based on equality, especially for the Global South.
- India aims to play a leadership role in development for middle-income and poorer countries.
India and France are deepening their strategic partnership, with technology and innovation emerging as key drivers, as highlighted by recent meetings between Prime Minister Modi and President Macron at the G7 Summit and other events. The "India-France Year of Innovation 2026" underscores a commitment to collaboration in cutting-edge fields such as cyberspace, Artificial Intelligence (AI), healthcare, sustainable development, and space. While traditional areas like defence and nuclear cooperation remain strong, the focus is shifting towards co-design and co-production of advanced technologies, including small modular reactors and human spaceflight. This strategic convergence aims to leverage France's technological prowess and India's growing innovation ecosystem, fostering a robust partnership that extends to global challenges and regional cooperation, including in Africa.
- Technology and innovation are the new pillars driving the strategic convergence between India and France.
- The "India-France Year of Innovation 2026" signifies a commitment to collaboration in areas like AI, cyberspace, healthcare, and sustainable development.
- The partnership extends beyond traditional defence and nuclear cooperation to include co-design and co-production of advanced technologies.
India and Slovakia have significantly expanded their bilateral relationship by signing several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) across key sectors including defence, labour mobility, education, and digital technologies. The joint statement emphasized a "comprehensive partnership," with Slovakia reaffirming its support for India's quest for a permanent seat on the UNSC and its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Defence and security cooperation is identified as a pivotal pillar, with a Letter of Intent signed to promote collaboration in defence technologies, industrial cooperation, capacity building, and R&D. Additionally, an MoU on digital technologies aims to deepen cooperation in AI, semiconductors, start-ups, IoT, and 6G standardization.
- India and Slovakia expanded bilateral ties through MoUs in defence, labour mobility, education, and digital technologies.
- Slovakia supports India's permanent UNSC seat and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership.
- Defence and security cooperation is a key pillar, with a Letter of Intent signed for collaboration in defence technologies and R&D.
The U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the war, lift blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and launch negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program and Western sanctions. The deal, signed digitally on Sunday and to be formally signed on June 19 in Geneva, includes the release of frozen assets and war reparations as essential parts. U.S. President Trump authorized the immediate removal of the naval blockade and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed the agreement, expressing hope for peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in West Asia. Tehran will charge fees for navigation services and environmental upkeep, not tolls.
- A preliminary agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The deal involves lifting blockades, releasing frozen assets, and paying war reparations, with formal signing expected on June 19 in Geneva.
- U.S. President Trump authorized the immediate removal of the naval blockade and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A Lowy Institute report warns that China's ability to launch direct missile strikes on Australia is growing, driven by Beijing's accumulation of long-range and hypersonic weapons and island-building in the South China Sea. The report identifies Chinese missiles fired from ships, submarines, and new intermediate-range ballistic missiles as the main threat. It projects that China's capacity to strike Australia will increase over the next decade with the growth of weapons like the Dong Feng (DF)-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile. This assessment underscores the significant shift in Australia's security landscape, prompting a military strategy focused on deterring adversaries from its northern approaches.
- A Lowy Institute report indicates China's growing capability for direct missile strikes on Australia.
- The threat is attributed to China's long-range and hypersonic weapons and island-building in the South China Sea.
- Missiles from ships, submarines, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles are identified as primary threats.