India and New Zealand have concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at boosting bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The agreement emphasizes services and labor mobility, areas where India holds a comparative advantage. New Zealand has agreed to eliminate duties on 100% of its tariff lines for Indian exports, while India offers market access on 70% of its tariff lines. This deal is significant as it reflects India's growing confidence as a reliable economic partner and its ability to negotiate high-quality agreements with developed economies while protecting domestic interests like agriculture.
- The FTA provides duty-free access for Indian exports in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, apparel, and engineering goods.
- New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years, focusing on infrastructure and technology.
- The agreement includes an annex on health and traditional medicine, opening doors for India's pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors.
The article discusses the shift from a unipolar world dominated by the U.S. to a complex global landscape. While the world is structurally multipolar with powers like India, Japan, and Germany, it exhibits bipolar characteristics due to the intense rivalry between the U.S. and China. Russia, though weakened, remains a significant player through its nuclear arsenal and energy resources. The U.S. is recalibrating its global role, moving away from being Europe's security guarantor to focusing on the Indo-Pacific. China is rapidly closing the economic and military gap with the U.S., leading to a prolonged contest for global dominance.
- The unipolar moment of the U.S. has passed, replaced by a system where no single power can dictate global outcomes.
- China's economy has reached about 66% of the U.S. economy, and it has built the world's largest navy by number of ships.
- Russia acts as a 'swing great power' between the U.S. and China, seeking to carve out its own sphere of influence in Eurasia.
India and New Zealand concluded a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in December 2025. Under this deal, New Zealand will provide zero-duty market access for 100% of India's exports, while India will relax tariffs on 95% of imports from New Zealand. Crucially, India has protected its sensitive dairy and agriculture sectors by excluding items like milk, cheese, and butter from the agreement. The FTA also includes provisions for the mobility of Indian professionals and students, and cooperation in traditional medicine like Ayurveda. This agreement is part of India's broader strategy to diversify trade partners and integrate into global value chains.
- New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years, with clawback mechanisms if targets aren't met.
- The deal facilitates easier visas and work rights for Indian skilled workers, particularly in IT, healthcare, and education.
- India's labor-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, and gems are expected to benefit significantly from zero-duty access.
Despite the ongoing civil war following the 2021 coup, Myanmar's military junta (Tatmadaw) is proceeding with a three-phase election process. The first phase was held in December 2024, with subsequent phases scheduled for January 2025. Major political parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), have been dissolved or excluded. The elections are widely viewed as an attempt by the military to gain domestic and international legitimacy. However, the international community, including the UN and several Western nations, has criticized the process as neither free nor fair, given the lack of competition and the prevailing violence.
- The military has introduced a proportional representation (PR) system to ensure no single party can secure a significant majority.
- Many areas in Myanmar are under the control of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), making it impossible to hold credible elections nationwide.
- The Union Election Commission (UEC) has been reconstituted with personnel favorable to the military.
India's foreign policy in 2025 was marked by significant shifts, including the return of Donald Trump as U.S. President and regional instability in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Key challenges for 2026 include navigating U.S. tariffs, immigration policies, and the "Neighborhood First" policy amidst anti-India sentiments in neighboring countries. Successes in 2025 included a turnaround in ties with Canada and a meeting with the Taliban. Looking ahead, India expects breakthroughs in FTAs with the UK and EU, and will host major events like the Artificial Intelligence Summit and potentially the Quad Summit, aiming for a more realistic assessment of diplomatic options.
- The return of Donald Trump has introduced uncertainties regarding tariffs, visas, and immigration policies.
- India's 'Neighborhood First' policy faces hurdles due to political turmoil in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
- Diplomatic successes in 2025 included improved ties with Canada and high-level engagement with the Taliban.
India's crude oil import strategy has undergone a major transformation, shifting from a heavy reliance on West Asian suppliers to Russia. Historically, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE accounted for two-thirds of India's imports. However, following the 2022 conflict in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow, India began purchasing Russian oil at discounted rates. Russian oil, which accounted for less than 2% of imports in 2021-22, surged to over 35% by 2024-25. Currently, oil from Moscow constitutes one-third of India's overall import basket, reflecting a strategic move to ensure energy security and economic viability amidst global geopolitical shifts.
- Russia has emerged as India's top crude oil supplier, providing one-third of the total import basket.
- Imports from Russia jumped from under 2% in 2021-22 to approximately 35.8% in 2024-25.
- Sanctions on Iran in 2011 and 2018 previously forced India to reduce its Iranian oil share significantly.
Following the conclusion of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with New Zealand, India has effectively achieved a "RCEP minus China" trade strategy. India withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019 due to concerns over Chinese manufacturing dominance and potential trade deficits. By signing bilateral FTAs with 14 of the 15 RCEP members (excluding China), India secures market access without the risks of a multilateral pact that includes China. This approach allows India to maintain safeguards for sensitive sectors while integrating with the ASEAN-led economic bloc through individual agreements, avoiding systemic trade vulnerabilities.
- India has secured trade deals with all RCEP nations except China by concluding an FTA with New Zealand.
- India opted out of RCEP in 2019 to protect its domestic industry from duty-free Chinese imports.
- The 'RCEP minus China' strategy provides market access while avoiding the risks of a China-centric multilateral pact.
India's foreign policy in 2025 faced significant hurdles across economic, security, and strategic domains. Relations with the U.S. were strained by tariffs on key exports and tightened immigration rules. Despite initial resistance, India faced pressure to reduce oil imports from Russia. Regionally, instability in Bangladesh and Myanmar, alongside persistent tensions with China and Pakistan, tested India's diplomatic resilience. The 'Vishwaguru' narrative faced challenges as India navigated a world increasingly defined by transactional diplomacy and 'G-2' dynamics between the U.S. and China. The year underscored the limits of performative diplomacy in achieving tangible strategic gains.
- Economic ties with the U.S. suffered due to the withdrawal of GSP privileges and new tariffs on labor-intensive sectors.
- India's energy security strategy was pressured by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and Iranian/Venezuelan imports.
- Regional challenges include the political transition in Bangladesh and the ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar.
A U.S. Department of War report suggests that China is using the recent disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to reset its relationship with India. The goal is to ease tensions and prevent India from deepening its strategic alignment with the United States. While high-level engagements between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping have resumed, India remains cautious due to past actions and unresolved disputes. Meanwhile, China continues to expand its military footprint in South Asia, including potential bases in neighboring countries and supplying advanced fighter aircraft to Pakistan.
- The October 2024 agreement is seen as part of a broader Chinese strategy to manage border tensions while pursuing regional dominance.
- China's overtures are viewed through a lens of persistent mutual distrust and multiple strategic irritants.
- The U.S. report highlights China's exploration of base options in countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India for the annual summit highlights the resilience of the India-Russia relationship despite Western pressure and the Ukraine conflict. The joint statement reaffirmed the 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership,' marking the 25th anniversary of the Declaration of Strategic Partnership. Key areas of cooperation include defense (S-400, Brahmos, Sukhoi-30 MKI), energy (Russian oil), and new trade corridors like the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor. While India diversifies its defense imports, Russia remains a critical and reliable partner for high-end technology and joint manufacturing in the aerospace sector.
- The visit marked the 25th anniversary of the Declaration of Strategic Partnership between India and Russia.
- Defense remains a cornerstone, featuring S-400 systems, Brahmos missiles, and joint manufacturing of Sukhoi-30 MKI.
- New logistics routes like the Northern Sea Route and Chennai-Vladivostok corridor were prioritized for trade.
India and New Zealand have concluded discussions on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at doubling bilateral trade to $5 billion within five years. The deal provides India with tariff-free access to New Zealand's markets and includes an FDI commitment of $20 billion over 15 years. New Zealand will grant 5,000 temporary work visas annually for Indian professionals in sectors like IT, healthcare, and education. While 95% of New Zealand's exports will see tariff cuts, India has protected sensitive sectors like dairy and certain agricultural products like rice and wheat to safeguard domestic farmers.
- The FTA aims to double bilateral trade from current levels to $5 billion within five years.
- India secured 5,000 annual work visas for professionals including yoga instructors, chefs, and healthcare workers.
- Sensitive agricultural sectors like dairy, rice, wheat, and soya are excluded from tariff concessions to protect Indian farmers.
India is currently Africa’s fourth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $100 billion in FY24. However, China remains the leader with over $200 billion in trade. To bridge this gap, a five-point strategy is proposed: removing trade barriers via preferential trade agreements, moving to high-value manufacturing, scaling up Lines of Credit for MSMEs, lowering freight costs through port modernization, and expanding digital and service trade. India aims to double its trade with Africa by 2030, leveraging its strengths in IT, healthcare, and professional services to build sustainable long-term partnerships.
- India's bilateral trade with Africa reached nearly $100 billion in FY24, with exports totaling $38.17 billion.
- Major exports to Africa include petroleum products, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, rice, and textiles.
- The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity for Indian exporters to access a unified market.
Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister has accused India of "weaponising water" by allegedly releasing water from dams into the Chenab River without prior warning. Pakistan claims these irregular releases violate the World Bank-brokered Indus Water Treaty (1960) and threaten its agricultural cycle and food security. The treaty gives India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, Beas) and Pakistan control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). While India has previously stated it alerts Pakistan about potential flooding, the latest allegations add to the long-standing water-sharing tensions between the two neighboring nations.
- Pakistan alleges that India's irregular water release from the Chenab River violates the Indus Water Treaty.
- The Indus Water Treaty (1960) was brokered by the World Bank to manage transboundary river waters.
- Under the treaty, India controls the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, while Pakistan controls the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) informed the Rajya Sabha that approximately 202 Indian nationals are believed to have been recruited into the Russian armed forces since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Of these, 119 have been discharged following government intervention, while 26 have died and seven remain missing. The government is actively working to secure the early discharge of the remaining 50 individuals. This issue highlights concerns regarding illegal recruitment and the safety of Indian nationals in conflict zones.
- A total of 202 Indians were identified as having joined the Russian military since 2022.
- The MEA confirmed 26 fatalities and seven missing persons among the recruits.
- Concerted diplomatic efforts have led to the early discharge of 119 Indian nationals so far.
India and Oman have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), marking Oman's first bilateral trade deal since 2006 and India's second with a GCC nation. Under this pact, Oman will provide duty-free access to 98.08% of its tariff lines, covering over 99% of Indian exports by value. Conversely, India offers liberalized tariffs on 77.79% of its lines. The agreement aims to boost labor-intensive sectors like MSMEs, textiles, and electronics while serving as a strategic gateway for India into the GCC, East Europe, and Africa.
- The CEPA provides India duty-free access to nearly 99.38% of its exports to Oman by value.
- It is the first bilateral agreement Oman has signed with any country since its 2006 deal with the U.S.
- The deal is expected to significantly benefit labor-intensive sectors, MSMEs, and women-led enterprises.
Tensions have flared again along the Thailand-Cambodia border, specifically around the 11th-century Hindu temple of Preah Vihear. Despite a 1962 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling awarding the temple to Cambodia, the surrounding 4.6 sq km of land remains contested. Recent clashes involving airstrikes and artillery have displaced thousands. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire in October was recently breached, leading to renewed hostilities. The dispute is rooted in colonial-era treaties and nationalist sentiments in both countries. De-escalation efforts now focus on troop withdrawals and direct military communication to prevent further conflict.
- The core of the dispute is the sovereignty over un-demarcated land surrounding the Preah Vihear temple.
- The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 1962 that the temple belongs to Cambodia.
- Recent escalations involve heavy weaponry and have caused significant civilian displacement on both sides.
An Indian Army contingent has departed for the United Arab Emirates to participate in the second edition of the joint military exercise 'DESERT CYCLONE-II'. Scheduled from December 18 to 30 in Abu Dhabi, the exercise involves 45 personnel from India's Mechanised Infantry Regiment and a similar contingent from the UAE's 53 Mechanised Infantry Battalion. The primary objective is to enhance interoperability and strengthen defense cooperation between the land forces of both nations. This exercise underscores the growing strategic partnership between India and the UAE in the defense sector.
- Desert Cyclone-II is a bilateral joint military exercise between the Indian Army and the UAE Land Forces.
- The exercise focuses on enhancing interoperability in desert warfare and mechanized operations.
- It reflects the deepening defense and security ties between India and the United Arab Emirates.
Data indicates that 3,258 Indian nationals were deported from the U.S. to India in 2025, the highest annual figure since at least 2009. This represents more than a two-fold increase compared to 2024. The deportations involve individuals who entered illegally, overstayed visas, or had criminal convictions. Public sentiment in the U.S. regarding these deportations is polarized; while many Republicans support stricter enforcement, a growing number of Democrats also believe some undocumented immigrants should be deported. The data highlights a significant shift in U.S. immigration enforcement and its impact on the Indian diaspora.
- Deportations of Indians from the U.S. reached a record high of 3,258 in 2025 (as of November 28).
- The 2025 figure is more than double the total number of deportations recorded in 2024.
- U.S. public opinion shows increasing support for deportations across partisan lines, though intensity varies.
During a visit to Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was honored with 'The Great Honour Nishan of Ethiopia' by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. This award recognizes Mr. Modi's significant role in strengthening bilateral ties between India and Ethiopia. Following high-level discussions on issues of mutual interest, the two nations elevated their relationship to a 'strategic partnership'. This move signifies a deepening of diplomatic and economic cooperation between India and the East African nation, marking a milestone in India's outreach to the African continent.
- PM Modi received Ethiopia's highest award, 'The Great Honour Nishan of Ethiopia'.
- India and Ethiopia elevated their bilateral ties to a strategic partnership.
- The award recognizes India's efforts in strengthening diplomatic and economic relations with Ethiopia.
The Trump Administration's National Security Strategy (NSS) signals a shift toward a mercantilist 'America First' approach, causing an existential crisis for Europe. The document challenges the post-war rules-based order and criticizes NATO allies for their reliance on US security. Europe faces three choices: ignore the shift, attempt to flatter the US administration, or develop independent defense capabilities. The NSS emphasizes trade imbalances and views Europe as a problem rather than an ally, potentially leading to a 'Hobbesian free-for-all' in international relations if the rules-based system crumbles.
- The NSS reflects a MAGA-esque mercantilist position focusing on trade imbalances and national sovereignty.
- Europe is viewed as a strategic problem rather than a traditional ally in the new US security framework.
- The strategy challenges the post-war trading order and transnational institutions like the WTO.
Ethiopia, a pivotal power in the Horn of Africa and headquarters of the African Union, presents a significant opportunity for India to expand its regional footprint. Historically linked through education and the Pan-African e-Network, the relationship is evolving toward strategic investment in pharmaceuticals, mining, and renewables. As a new member of BRICS, Ethiopia offers India a gateway to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Strengthening bilateral agreements like the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) and increasing defense cooperation are essential steps to solidify this partnership in a rapidly changing global economy.
- Ethiopia is one of Africa's fastest-growing economies and serves as the headquarters for the African Union.
- India has been a long-term partner in Ethiopia's education sector and the pilot for the Pan-African e-Network project.
- New opportunities for cooperation exist in mining (gold, critical minerals) and renewable energy (hydropower).
The Preah Vihear temple, an 11th-century Hindu shrine dedicated to Lord Shiva, remains a flashpoint for border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand. Located atop a cliff in the Dangrek Mountains, the temple's sovereignty was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 1962, a ruling reaffirmed in 2013. However, disputes over the surrounding 4.6 sq km of land persist, leading to periodic military skirmishes, most recently in July 2025. Built by Khmer kings, the temple is a UNESCO World Heritage site and a masterpiece of Khmer architecture, following a unique north-south axis unlike typical rectangular Khmer temples.
- Preah Vihear is a 9th-12th century Hindu temple dedicated to Shiva, built by Khmer kings like Yasovarman I and Suryavarman II.
- The ICJ ruled in 1962 and 2013 that the temple belongs to Cambodia, based on French colonial-era maps.
- The site is strategically located on the Dangrek mountain range, forming a natural frontier between Thailand and Cambodia.
Australia has become the first country to implement a comprehensive social media ban for users under the age of 16 through the Online Safety Amendment Bill 2024. The law mandates that platforms like Meta, TikTok, and X must take 'reasonable steps' to prevent underage access or face fines up to A$49.5 million. The government’s rationale centers on protecting minors from cyberbullying, harmful content, and predatory practices. While the ban has sparked debates over privacy and the efficacy of age-verification technology, internal documents from tech firms revealed they were aware of the addictive nature and negative mental health impacts of their platforms on teenagers.
- The Online Safety Amendment (Social Media Minimum Age) Bill 2024 sets 16 as the minimum age for social media accounts.
- Platforms face massive fines (up to $33 million USD) for non-compliance with age-gating requirements.
- The ban does not allow for parental consent to bypass the age limit, reflecting a 'blanket ban' approach.
The Indian Ocean is emerging as a critical frontier for the 'Blue Economy,' focusing on sustainable ocean-based development. India's 'Blue Ocean Strategy' emphasizes stewardship of the commons, resilience against climate change, and inclusive growth. Key initiatives include the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision and the proposed Indian Ocean Blue Fund. With COP30 in Belém and the upcoming UNOC3 in 2026, there is a global push for ocean governance. India aims to lead through green shipping corridors, blue bonds, and marine technology transfer while addressing threats like illegal fishing and ecosystem degradation.
- The Blue Economy focuses on sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth and improved livelihoods.
- India's SAGAR vision, articulated in 2015, provides a framework for regional maritime cooperation.
- The BBNJ Agreement (Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction) is a key international treaty for ocean governance.