Global oil prices are increasingly influenced by geopolitical risks, rather than solely supply-demand factors. Despite a two-month decline, prices remain high due to ongoing conflicts and trade disruptions. The Red Sea crisis, for instance, has significantly increased shipping costs and transit times, impacting global supply chains. Market volatility is further exacerbated by speculative trading and the strategic stockpiling of oil by nations. The shift from a rules-based to a transactional global order, coupled with the weaponization of trade, means that energy security is now intertwined with broader geopolitical stability, making prices sensitive to non-economic factors.
- Geopolitical risks, including conflicts and trade disruptions, are now primary drivers of global oil price volatility.
- The Red Sea crisis has led to increased shipping costs and transit times, impacting global supply chains and energy markets.
- Speculative trading and strategic oil stockpiling by nations contribute to market instability and price fluctuations.
Kharg Island, a small coral outpost in the Persian Gulf, is Iran's "crown jewel" and primary oil export terminal, handling up to 90% of its crude exports. Its deep-water location and pipeline connections to major oilfields make it crucial for global oil markets. Recently, U.S. forces "obliterated" military targets on the island, escalating tensions in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. The island's strategic importance, highlighted by its history as a trade hub and its resilience during the Iran-Iraq War, means any disruption could severely impact global energy prices, with Brent crude already surging.
- Kharg Island serves as Iran's most critical oil export terminal, handling the vast majority of its crude shipments.
- Its strategic location with deep waters and pipeline connectivity makes it ideal for supertanker loading.
- The island has a history as a significant trade hub and has been fortified and rebuilt after past conflicts.
The Union government invoked the Essential Commodities Act (ECA), 1955, to manage India's cooking gas supply chain, which was severely disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Act empowers the government to control production, supply, and distribution of essential goods like LPG, ensuring equitable availability and fair prices. This intervention aims to boost domestic LPG production, prioritize household consumption, and regulate natural gas allocation. The government claims a 25% increase in domestic LPG production, but a 50% import gap remains. The order also sets a priority framework for natural gas distribution, impacting various industries.
- The Essential Commodities Act (ECA), 1955, has been invoked to address disruptions in India's LPG supply due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- The Act grants the government powers to control the production, supply, and distribution of essential commodities.
- The intervention prioritizes domestic LPG production and household consumption, aiming to ensure availability and fair pricing.
India, as the Chair of BRICS, is actively facilitating discussions among member nations regarding the ongoing West Asia conflict. Randhir Jaiswal, official spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, noted that forging a consensus has been challenging due to the direct involvement of several BRICS members, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, in the crisis. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has been in regular contact with regional diplomats, including his Iranian counterpart, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, to exchange views on bilateral matters and BRICS-related issues.
- India is leading efforts to build consensus within BRICS on the escalating West Asia crisis.
- The direct involvement of BRICS members like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE in the conflict complicates consensus-building.
- India, holding the BRICS Chair, is using the Sherpa channel to facilitate these crucial discussions.
Two Indian-flagged LPG carriers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi, successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are en route to India, carrying a combined 92,712 tonnes of cooking gas. This development was announced by Rajesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary at the Ministry of Shipping and Waterways, amidst heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. Of 24 Indian vessels in the region, 22 remain on standby. India, a major LPG importer, faces challenges in securing alternative sources due to the Persian Gulf being out of bounds, with U.S. Gulf Coast imports taking two months for a round-trip.
- Two Indian LPG carriers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi, have safely navigated the Strait of Hormuz, carrying significant quantities of cooking gas to India.
- The Ministry of Shipping and Waterways confirmed the safe passage, highlighting the ongoing efforts to ensure energy supply amidst regional instability.
- India relies heavily on LPG imports, with a substantial portion historically coming through the Persian Gulf.
U.S. forces "obliterated" military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export hub, following President Trump's warning against disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This comes amidst escalating tensions, with a missile striking the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and an Iranian drone hitting an oil facility in the UAE. Iran's joint military command threatened to attack U.S.-linked oil and energy facilities in the region if its oil infrastructure is targeted, and warned of striking UAE cities if its ports are used for U.S. attacks. The U.S. is deploying 2,500 more marines and an amphibious assault ship to West Asia.
- U.S. forces attacked military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, a critical hub for oil exports, following threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran retaliated with a missile strike on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and a drone attack on a UAE oil facility.
- Iran has threatened to target U.S.-linked oil and energy facilities in the region and cities in the UAE if its oil infrastructure is hit.
Amid rising oil prices and the ongoing West Asia conflict, the Trump administration has granted a temporary authorization for other countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This follows a similar 30-day waiver granted to India on March 5 to help cool down oil prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this "narrowly tailored, short-term measure" applies only to oil already in transit and is intended to increase global supply without providing significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which primarily derives energy revenue from taxes at the point of extraction.
- The U.S. issued a temporary waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea.
- This measure aims to stabilize global energy markets and keep oil prices low amidst the West Asia conflict.
- A similar 30-day waiver was previously granted to India for Russian oil purchases.
The U.S. has initiated a new investigation under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act, 1974, into India and 59 other economies. The probe aims to determine if these countries have failed to effectively ban the import of goods produced using forced labor and how this failure impacts U.S. workers and businesses. This is the second such investigation, following a previous one on manufacturing capacity. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that despite international consensus, governments have not enforced measures against forced labor goods, creating an unfair cost advantage for foreign producers.
- The U.S. launched a new investigation into 60 countries, including India, regarding forced labor goods.
- The probe assesses whether these countries have failed to ban imports of goods made with forced labor.
- The investigation is conducted under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act, 1974.
Iran has called on India, as the chair of BRICS, to ensure the grouping plays a positive role in supporting global stability and security. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi conveyed this during a call with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, following a conversation between PM Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian regarding safe passage for Indian ships through the Hormuz Strait. Iran emphasized the necessity for regional and international bodies to condemn military aggression against Iran. This call comes as BRICS, which includes Iran and UAE as invitees for the upcoming summit, has not yet issued a statement on the ongoing West Asia conflict.
- Iran urged BRICS, under India's chairmanship, to contribute to global stability and security.
- The call followed discussions between Indian and Iranian leaders on safe passage through the Hormuz Strait.
- Iran seeks BRICS to condemn military aggression against it.
The Indian-flagged LPG carrier Shivalik, with a cargo-carrying capacity of more than 54,000 tonnes, successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, according to tracking data. The vessel, owned by the Shipping Corporation of India, had departed from Ras Laffan, Qatar, and was originally bound for the U.S. This transit is significant as the Strait of Hormuz is a volatile region, especially since the West Asia conflict began on February 28, which had left 24 Indian ships stranded upstream. While the Indian Navy denied guiding the Shivalik, the government is in constant touch with stakeholders regarding the 23,000 Indian nationals working in the Persian Gulf region.
- Indian-flagged LPG carrier Shivalik successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz.
- The transit is critical given the ongoing West Asia conflict and previous stranding of Indian ships.
- The Shivalik's cargo capacity is equivalent to nearly one day of India's LPG imports.
India, aligning with the Group for Equity, is pushing for a legally enforceable benefit-sharing system at the crucial World Health Organization (WHO) Pandemic Agreement talks in Geneva. This system would ensure that developing countries sharing pathogen materials and genetic sequence data receive fair and concrete benefits in return. The WHO Pandemic Agreement, adopted in May 2025, aims to address gaps and inequalities in global pandemic prevention and response, highlighted by COVID-19. The Group for Equity insists on standard, legally binding contracts for pathogen and sequence data sharing, ensuring benefits like a percentage of annual revenue from commercialized products or reserved production for WHO.
- India supports a legally enforceable benefit-sharing system for pathogen materials at WHO Pandemic Agreement talks.
- The system aims to ensure fair returns for developing countries sharing genetic sequence data.
- The WHO Pandemic Agreement was adopted in May 2025 to address global pandemic preparedness gaps.
The ongoing conflict in West Asia has severely impacted India's Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply, highlighting the nation's heavy import dependence. India imports about 60% of its LPG, with 90% routed through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait. This dependence, coupled with limited strategic storage capacity (less than two days of consumption), makes India vulnerable to supply disruptions and price hikes. The government has responded by directing domestic refiners to maximize LPG production for household consumers and cutting LPG subsidy allocation. LPG consumption has surged due to schemes like PMUY, increasing active consumers to 33 crore.
- India is heavily dependent on LPG imports, with approximately 60% of its requirement sourced from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz.
- The nation's strategic LPG storage capacity is critically low, holding less than two days of consumption.
- The government has mandated domestic oil refiners to maximize LPG production and prioritize household consumers to mitigate supply disruptions.
Iran has escalated its campaign in West Asia by attacking commercial ships in the Persian Gulf and targeting Dubai International Airport and financial institutions. This comes amidst rising global energy concerns and American-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. A Thai cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, bound for India, was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving three crew members missing. India's MEA deplored the attacks, emphasizing the danger to commercial shipping and civilian lives. Iran also warned of targeting West Asia's financial institutions. The International Energy Agency plans to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves to manage price jumps, the largest such release ever.
- Iran has intensified attacks on commercial shipping and critical infrastructure in West Asia, including Dubai Airport and financial institutions.
- A Thai cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, en route to Kandla, India, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in three missing crew members.
- India's Ministry of External Affairs condemned the attacks, highlighting the threat to commercial shipping and Indian citizens.
The article discusses the complex relationship between AI development and national security, prompted by Anthropic's request to label Chinese AI labs as threats and the Pentagon's 'supply chain' risk designation for Anthropic. It highlights that generative AI, a dual-use technology, is more akin to semiconductors than nuclear weapons, making its proliferation hard to control due to talent mobility and workarounds to restrictions. The debate extends to the ethical use of AI models by militaries and the inadequacy of corporate guardrails. The author advocates for plurilateral commitments by states for responsible AI use, including human control over lethal decisions and prohibitions on mass civilian surveillance, to ensure effective governance.
- Generative AI is a dual-use technology, comparable to semiconductors, making its control and non-proliferation challenging.
- The U.S. military's use of AI models and the Pentagon's 'supply chain' risk designation for Anthropic highlight the national security implications.
- Restrictions on AI technology are often ineffective due to talent mobility and workarounds, consolidating power in a few dominant companies.
The article argues that India's national security cannot be outsourced, especially given the escalating tensions in West Asia. It highlights the region's volatility, marked by attacks on energy installations and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impact India's energy security. The author criticizes India's default mode of reaction when its interests are threatened, such as the assassination of Khamenei or the torpedoing of an Iranian naval vessel. The piece emphasizes the need for India to adopt a more proactive and robust security architecture, moving beyond reliance on external powers and developing self-reliance in military equipment and strategic planning.
- India's national security strategy needs to be self-reliant and cannot depend on external powers.
- The escalating conflict in West Asia, including threats to energy installations and the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacts India's security and economy.
- India needs to move beyond a reactive stance and adopt a proactive, robust security architecture.
The article analyzes the ongoing Iran war, framing it as an attempt to destroy the Iranian ideology and achieve regime change rather than merely a military strike. It discusses the U.S. and Israel's objectives, Iran's decentralized response, and the broader regional implications, including threats to energy security and the Strait of Hormuz. The author argues that the conflict exposes the U.S.'s inability to protect Gulf states and complicates India's strategic space. India needs a more balanced regional policy, beyond just bilateral relations, to navigate complex dynamics and protect its interests amidst the U.S.-China rivalry and a volatile West Asia.
- The Iran war is primarily aimed at regime change and destroying Iranian ideology, not just military targets.
- The conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. security guarantees for Gulf states and intensified regional instability.
- India's strategic space is constrained by the U.S.-China rivalry and the volatile situation in West Asia.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated that commitment to protect Indians in West Asia is an "overriding priority" and that security and trade flows are "always paramount." He confirmed ongoing diplomatic-level conversations with Iran and the U.S. and discussed efforts to help stranded Indian tourists and operate commercial flights. India also facilitated the docking of the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Lavan at Kochi, following a request for three ships. Jaishankar briefed MPs on assurances from Gulf states regarding the well-being of the Indian community and reiterated India's commitment to energy security amidst regional attacks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar affirmed India's commitment to protecting its nationals and ensuring energy security in West Asia.
- Diplomatic conversations are ongoing with both Iran and the U.S. to manage regional tensions and ensure Indian interests.
- India facilitated the docking of the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Lavan at Kochi, demonstrating humanitarian assistance and diplomatic engagement.
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected former President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, ruling he overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Court emphasized that while the President has broad powers to regulate trade during emergencies, these powers are not unlimited and require specific congressional authorization for tariffs. The ruling highlighted that the President cannot impose tariffs based on "objective parameters" without clear legislative backing. This decision underscores the importance of checks and balances, clarifying the limits of presidential power in trade policy and potentially impacting future trade disputes.
- The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, citing a lack of presidential authority under the IEEPA.
- The Court clarified that presidential powers to regulate trade, even during emergencies, are not absolute and require specific congressional authorization.
- The ruling emphasizes the constitutional principle of checks and balances, limiting executive overreach in trade policy.
The article discusses the emerging economic alignment between Canada and India, marked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent visit and the formal relaunch of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations. Both nations aim to double bilateral trade to $70 billion by 2030. Key areas of cooperation include energy (uranium supply agreement), critical minerals, technology, financial services, and agriculture. The renewed political resolve and strategic alignment are expected to create opportunities for partnerships, joint ventures, and investments, with Canada seeking to diversify economic partnerships amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to India signaled a renewed political will to strengthen economic ties.
- The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations have been formally relaunched, aiming to double bilateral trade to $70 billion by 2030.
- Key sectors for cooperation include energy (uranium), critical minerals, technology, financial services, and agriculture.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system is an advanced U.S. missile defence platform designed to intercept ballistic missiles during their final flight stage, both within and outside the Earth's atmosphere. It employs "hit-to-kill" technology, relying on kinetic energy rather than explosives, which enhances precision and reduces debris. THAAD is a highly mobile and rapidly deployable system, integrated into a broader layered missile defence network alongside systems like Patriot and Aegis. Recent deployments in West Asia and reported attacks on associated radar systems highlight its strategic importance in regional security contexts.
- THAAD is a sophisticated U.S. missile defence system designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitudes.
- It uses "hit-to-kill" kinetic energy technology, which is distinct from explosive warheads, to neutralize threats.
- THAAD is a mobile and deployable system that integrates with other missile defence assets, forming a layered defence network.
India signed a C$2.6-billion deal with Canadian company Cameco for 10,000 tonnes of uranium supply from 2027 to 2035, enhancing its energy security. India's domestic uranium reserves are low-grade, making imports crucial for its civilian nuclear power programme, which currently operates 24 reactors with 9 GW capacity and aims for 100 GW by 2047. The deal falls under the 2010 India-Canada Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, which requires India to provide "fissionable material accounts." Uranium is also used for research, medical isotopes, and defense purposes, including nuclear warheads and submarines.
- The uranium deal with Canada is crucial for India's energy security, supplementing its low-grade domestic reserves.
- India's nuclear power program, transitioning through three stages, aims for significant capacity expansion by 2047.
- The deal operates under the India-Canada Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, which includes specific accountability requirements.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, through which one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil and one-quarter of global LNG pass. Tensions in West Asia, particularly involving the US and Iran, frequently disrupt shipping and raise concerns about global energy supplies. India is heavily dependent on this strait, with nearly two-thirds of its crude oil and half of its natural gas imports routed through it. To mitigate risks, India is exploring alternative supply routes and has invoked emergency powers for domestic refineries to ramp up LPG production.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a globally significant maritime chokepoint for oil and natural gas transit.
- Geopolitical tensions in West Asia directly impact the security and navigability of the Strait, affecting global energy markets.
- India has a substantial reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy imports, making disruptions a major concern for its energy security.
The Indian government is considering deploying Navy ships to escort Indian-flagged vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, with a decision expected soon. This move comes as approximately 10% of the stranded oil tankers and gas carriers are Indian-flagged. The Indian Navy has previously conducted Operation Sankalp to ensure maritime security in the Gulf region, including actions against Houthi rebels. While Iran has promised not to attack neighboring countries, India has also diversified its crude oil supplies, with 70% now sourced without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to prevent retail price hikes for petrol and diesel.
- India is considering deploying its Navy to escort stranded ships in the Persian Gulf, emphasizing maritime security.
- Operation Sankalp has been a key Indian Navy initiative for ensuring maritime security in the Gulf region, including countering Houthi attacks.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, and disruptions there significantly impact global and Indian energy supplies.
Domestic cooking gas prices were hiked by ₹60 per cylinder, and commercial cylinders by ₹114.50, attributed to a sharp rise in global prices due to the West Asia conflict disrupting tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Non-subsidised LPG now costs ₹913 per 14.2-kg cylinder in Delhi. The government is considering deploying Navy ships to escort Indian-flagged vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, as India relies heavily on imports via the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency powers have been invoked to ramp up domestic LPG production.
- Domestic and commercial cooking gas prices have been significantly increased due to global price surges and disruptions in West Asia.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial waterway for India's crude oil and natural gas imports, and its disruption impacts energy security.
- The Indian government is contemplating deploying Navy ships to escort Indian-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf to ensure maritime security.