The West Asia conflict, primarily Benjamin Netanyahu's war, began on February 28, 2026, with U.S. and Israel's joint military operations against Iran. Despite widespread devastation, assassination of senior leaders, and initial onslaught, Iran has survived, maintained its uranium stockpile, and is prepared for an extended war. Iran seeks to provoke an oil crisis by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of world oil passes. The conflict has caused significant economic strain globally due to rising oil costs and maritime disruptions. The article highlights Israel's determination to expand the conflict despite international reluctance and the economic consequences, noting that a ground invasion for regime change in Iran is deemed impossible without significant global support.
- The West Asia conflict, initiated by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, began on February 28, 2026, and continues to cause large-scale devastation.
- Despite significant losses, Iran has demonstrated resilience, maintaining its uranium stockpile and preparing for a prolonged conflict.
- Iran aims to provoke a serious oil crisis by threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit choke point.
India's industrial growth showed an unexpected positive surprise in February 2026, reaching 5.2%, making it the best performance in nearly two years, despite the Index of Eight Core Industries (IIP) slowing to 2.3%. This divergence suggests strong performance from sectors outside the core industries. Manufacturing sector growth accelerated to 6%, and capital goods sector growth hit a 28-month high of 12.5%. However, consumer non-durables contracted for the second consecutive month, indicating low consumer sentiment, which correlates with shrinking household expenditure's contribution to GDP. The article notes that the West Asia crisis and early March indicators point to a moderation in economic momentum.
- India's industrial growth in February 2026 was a surprising 5.2%, the best in nearly two years.
- The Index of Eight Core Industries' growth slowed to 2.3%, indicating that non-core sectors performed well.
- Manufacturing sector growth accelerated to 6%, and capital goods sector growth reached a 28-month high of 12.5%.
India possesses sufficient domestic natural gas production to comfortably meet the demand for up to 30 crore domestic piped natural gas (PNG) connections, even if it relies solely on its own liquefied natural gas (LNG) output. Anjan Kumar Mishra, Secretary at the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board, stated that the government aims to significantly increase daily PNG connections. Amid escalating tensions in West Asia affecting LPG supplies, the government is instituting mechanisms for an accelerated and incentivized transition to piped gas to ease pressure on LPG. India currently has 1.1-1.2 crore active domestic PNG connections, consuming 3 million metric standard cubic meters of natural gas daily. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has introduced norms to accelerate PNG uptake and transition.
- India's domestic natural gas production is sufficient to cater to 30 crore PNG connections, even without relying on imports.
- The government is actively working to increase the daily addition of PNG connections, aiming for 20,000 per day.
- Escalating tensions in West Asia have impacted LPG supplies, prompting a push for accelerated transition to piped gas.
India's LPG crisis, triggered by the West Asian war in March 2026, exposed critical weaknesses in its clean cooking system despite the success of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). The scheme, which connected over 10 crore households to LPG, failed to protect beneficiaries when the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, highlighting India's 60% import dependence and lack of an LPG-specific buffer. The article argues that while PMUY scaled uptake, it lacked continuity under stress, as the state's sovereign guarantee had no physical infrastructure backing it. This misalignment disproportionately affected the poorest and marginalized communities, who reverted to biomass due to rising prices and supply issues, revealing structural gendered dimensions where women bear the burden of supply failures.
- The West Asian war in March 2026 exposed India's vulnerability in LPG supply due to reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
- Despite the success of PMUY in expanding LPG access, the welfare architecture lacked resilience during supply disruptions.
- India's high import dependence (60% of LPG, 90% through Strait of Hormuz) and absence of an LPG-specific buffer are critical flaws.
India's industrial activity, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), saw a marginal acceleration to 5.2% in February. This growth was primarily fueled by a significant increase in the manufacturing and capital goods sectors. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation also revised January's final growth rate upwards to 5.1% from the provisional 4.8%. Manufacturing sector growth accelerated to 6% in February from 5.3% in the previous month, surpassing the 2.8% recorded in February 2025. However, mining and quarrying growth slowed to 3.1%, and electricity sector growth also decelerated to 2.3% in February 2026.
- India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth accelerated to 5.2% in February.
- The acceleration was primarily driven by strong performance in the manufacturing and capital goods sectors.
- Manufacturing sector growth reached 6% in February, a significant increase from the previous month and year.
Anant Goenka's article emphasizes India's deep embedding in global supply chains and its vulnerability to disruptions due to heavy reliance on imported raw materials and intermediates. He highlights critical sectors like energy (85% crude oil import), food (edible oils, pulses, fertilizers), and manufacturing (electronics, pharmaceuticals). The article advocates for long-term resilience through diversification, domestic capacity building, and technological transition. Key strategies include accelerating renewable energy, expanding domestic oil/gas exploration, buffering strategic reserves, promoting crop diversification, reforming the fertilizer sector, and deepening domestic manufacturing of intermediates, especially APIs and semiconductors.
- India's manufacturing ecosystem is highly dependent on imported raw materials and intermediates, making it vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions.
- Critical sectors like energy, food, and manufacturing (electronics, pharma) face significant import dependence, impacting inflation and economic stability.
- Securing supply chains requires a multi-pronged approach including accelerating renewable energy, expanding domestic resource exploration, and building strategic reserves.
The Union Cabinet has approved a 'Modified UDAN' scheme with a sixfold higher outlay, aiming to revive regional aviation. The scheme extends the subsidy period for tier-II and tier-III routes from three to five years and shifts direct funding of subsidies to the exchequer. However, the article argues that UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik) has historically failed due to weak underlying demand, insufficient infrastructure, and competition from other transport modes. The Modified UDAN scheme, despite increased financial commitment, is unlikely to create sustainable demand without revisiting route identification, nurturing strategies, and integrating with broader transport networks.
- The Union Cabinet has approved a 'Modified UDAN' scheme with a sixfold higher outlay to boost regional aviation.
- The modified scheme extends the subsidy period for tier-II and tier-III routes from three to five years and involves direct funding of subsidies by the government.
- Critics argue that UDAN has historically failed due to weak demand, inadequate infrastructure, and competition from rail and road transport.
The article, an analysis by Jean Drèze, argues that the new Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) (VB-G RAM G) Act, 2025, fails to correct serious anomalies in MGNREGA wage rate determination. It highlights how MGNREGA wages have lagged behind minimum and market wages due to a real-wage freeze imposed by the central government since 2009. This has led to a "discouragement effect" and increased corruption. The new Act perpetuates this crisis by retaining central government power to set wages (Section 10) and dropping the provision for State-specific minimum wages (Section 6(2)), despite wage costs now being shared 60:40 with States.
- The VB-G RAM G Act, 2025, is criticized for not addressing the long-standing issue of MGNREGA wage rates lagging behind minimum and market wages.
- A central government real-wage freeze since 2009, based on the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers, has led to MGNREGA wages being lower than State minimum wages.
- The new Act retains the central government's power to determine wage rates (Section 10) and removes the provision for State-specific minimum wages (Section 6(2)), despite shared wage costs.
Nearly 12,000 Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) workers in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, have not received work for three to four months, leading to protests since January 2. Similar complaints have emerged from Dungarpur, Rajasthan, where workers were told MGNREGS had been discontinued. Despite the Union government's assurance that MGNREGS would continue until the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) (VB-G RAM G) Act, 2025, is rolled out, district officials claim instructions not to start new work. Workers and activists highlight the lack of clarity and the significant impact on rural household incomes, especially for women-led households.
- Thousands of MGNREGS workers in Bihar and Rajasthan are protesting due to a lack of work for several months, despite government assurances.
- The Union government had promised to continue MGNREGS unchanged until the new Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) (VB-G RAM G) Act, 2025, is implemented.
- District officials reportedly claim instructions not to start new MGNREGS work, contradicting the Ministry's stance, leading to confusion and uncertainty on the ground.
The Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for March 2026 indicates a "moderation in economic momentum" for India, primarily due to the West Asia war. While output growth is softening, demand appears "relatively resilient," supported by double-digit growth in digital payments and strong vehicle registrations. Key indicators like e-way bill generation and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) show deceleration. The macroeconomic impact includes higher petroleum import bills, reduced exports, and potential reduced remittances. Export-oriented sectors such as textiles, leather, and gems & jewellery, along with MSMEs and continuous-process industries, are particularly affected by rising logistics costs, weakening demand from Gulf markets, and production curtailment due to import dependence on West Asia for oil, LPG, and LNG.
- India's economic momentum is slowing, attributed to the West Asia war, as per the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for March 2026.
- Key indicators like e-way bill generation and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) show deceleration, reflecting the initial impact of global developments.
- Macroeconomic impacts include higher import bills for petroleum, reduced exports, and potential reduction in remittances, alongside increased freight and insurance costs due to shipping disruptions.
The Ministry of Defence signed two contracts worth ₹858 crore to bolster India's defence capabilities and partnerships. A ₹445 crore deal was signed with Russian agency JSC Rosoboronexport for the Tunguska Air Defence Missile System for the Army, enhancing multi-layered air defence against aerial threats. Concurrently, a ₹413 crore contract was signed with U.S. firm Boeing India Defense Private Limited for depot-level inspection of the Navy's P-8I Long-Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft. This U.S. deal falls under the 'Buy Indian' category with 100% indigenous content, promoting in-country MRO and Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative.
- India's Ministry of Defence signed two significant defence contracts totaling ₹858 crore.
- A ₹445 crore contract was signed with Russia's JSC Rosoboronexport for the Tunguska Air Defence Missile System for the Army.
- A ₹413 crore contract was signed with U.S. firm Boeing India Defense Private Limited for maintenance of the Navy's P-8I Long-Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft.
The article questions the reliability of India's GDP growth estimates, citing a study suggesting overestimation by 1.5-2 percentage points post-2011. It highlights that official narratives of high growth often don't align with the lived experiences of ordinary citizens, particularly concerning jobs, wages, and small businesses. The reliance on formal-sector data for growth estimates risks missing distress in the large informal sector, which was disproportionately affected by demonetisation, GST, and COVID-19. The author argues for restoring independent statistical authority and transparent data to reflect the realities of the informal workforce and the poor, rather than flattering official narratives.
- A study by Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman, and Arvind Subramanian suggests India's GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1.5-2 percentage points since 2011.
- The official high-growth narrative often contrasts with the ground realities of subdued private investment, low wage growth, and persistent job anxiety.
- The reliance on formal-sector data for growth estimates can obscure the impact of economic shocks on the informal economy, which employs most Indians.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has increased the allocation of commercial LPG by an additional 20%. This raises the total allocation of commercial LPG to 70% of pre-crisis levels. This move aims to offer respite to various entities and address potential supply concerns, ensuring better availability of the hydrocarbon gas for commercial use.
- The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas increased commercial LPG allocation.
- The allocation was increased by an additional 20%.
- This brings the total commercial LPG allocation to 70% of pre-crisis levels.
The Union government reduced the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 a litre each, bringing diesel duty to zero and petrol to ₹3 a litre. However, this cut will not lower fuel prices for consumers. Instead, it aims to ease the fiscal hit on oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to high and rising oil prices. The move is expected to cost the exchequer ₹7,000 crore over 15 days. The government also hiked export duties on diesel to ₹1.5 a litre and ATF to ₹9.5 a litre, expecting to add ₹1,500 crore to the exchequer, mitigating some impact. OMCs face significant under-recoveries daily.
- The Union government reduced the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre.
- This duty cut will not result in lower fuel prices for consumers but is intended to reduce losses for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs).
- The duty on diesel is now zero, and on petrol, it is ₹3 per litre after the reduction.
The article examines the critical issues at stake during the WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14), held amid rising geopolitical rivalry and a retreat from trade multilateralism. Key challenges include the paralysis of the WTO's dispute settlement system due to the U.S. blocking Appellate Body appointments, and the inability to draft new trade rules due to consensus-based decision-making. MC14 will address the incorporation of plurilateral agreements into WTO law, the e-commerce moratorium (which developing countries fear will lead to revenue losses), and Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) for developing countries. India is urged to champion multilateralism, demand Appellate Body restoration, and oppose efforts to weaken foundational WTO principles.
- MC14 takes place amidst rising geopolitical rivalry, global conflicts, and a decline in trade multilateralism, with the U.S. weaponizing tariffs and blocking the Appellate Body.
- Key issues include the potential incorporation of plurilateral agreements into WTO law, which India opposes due to concerns about system fragmentation.
- The e-commerce moratorium, set to expire on March 31, is contentious, as developed nations want it permanent while developing countries fear significant revenue losses.
The Union government has asked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to continue targeting retail inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side for another five years, extending until March 31, 2031. This marks the second time the government has retained this inflation target, which was first mandated to the RBI in 2016 for the period ending March 31, 2021, and subsequently maintained in March 2021. The notification, issued by the Department of Economic Affairs, specifies an upper tolerance level of 6% and a lower tolerance level of 2%.
- The Union government has notified the RBI to maintain the retail inflation target at 4% until March 31, 2031.
- The target includes a margin of 2% on either side, setting an upper tolerance level of 6% and a lower tolerance level of 2%.
- This is the second time the government has retained the 4% inflation target, which was initially mandated in 2016.
The Union Cabinet has approved a revamped UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik) scheme with a total outlay of ₹28,840 crore. A significant policy shift extends the subsidy period for airlines on select Tier-2 and Tier-3 regional routes from three to five years. This change addresses the high rate of discontinued routes (327 out of 663 launched) after the previous three-year subsidy cap. The funding mechanism will also shift from a levy embedded in airfares on non-UDAN routes to direct funding from the exchequer, aiming to make more regional routes viable.
- The Union Cabinet approved a modified UDAN scheme with a total outlay of ₹28,840 crore.
- The subsidy period for airlines operating on select Tier-2 and Tier-3 regional routes has been extended from three to five years.
- The funding mechanism for subsidies will shift from a Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) levy on non-UDAN airfares to direct funding from the exchequer.
India has significantly updated its climate goals, pledging that by 2035, 60% of its installed electric capacity will be from non-fossil sources. This new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), to be submitted to the UNFCCC, also targets a 47% reduction in emissions intensity per unit of GDP from 2005 levels and an increase in carbon sink to 3.5-4 billion tonnes. India has already surpassed its previous 2030 target of 50% non-fossil power, currently at 52%. The move comes as India and Argentina were the last G-20 countries to announce their 2035 NDCs.
- India has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035, aiming for 60% non-fossil fuel installed electric capacity.
- Other new targets include a 47% reduction in emissions intensity per unit of GDP from 2005 levels and a carbon sink of 3.5-4 billion tonnes.
- India has already achieved its previous 2030 target of 50% non-fossil power, with current installed capacity at 52% from non-fossil sources.
The article discusses the imperative for an energy transition, arguing it should be driven by ethics rather than solely by geopolitical shocks or fluctuating oil prices. It highlights how the West Asia conflict exposes the vulnerability of fossil fuel dependency, affecting economies like India's. While renewables offer energy sovereignty, they depend on critical minerals with concentrated supply chains, posing new geopolitical risks. The author suggests that cheap oil makes renewables less attractive due to high upfront costs, implying that ethical considerations for saving the planet should be the primary driver, not just economic or security concerns.
- Fossil fuel dependency creates national security vulnerabilities, as seen with the West Asia conflict impacting India's oil supply.
- While renewables offer energy independence, their reliance on critical minerals with concentrated supply chains introduces new geopolitical risks.
- The high upfront capital expenditure for renewables makes them less attractive when oil prices are low, leading governments to prioritize fiscal responsibility over energy sovereignty.
The article condemns the U.S. administration's actions against Cuba, describing them as an "imperial act" aimed at regime change. It details how the U.S. has blockaded Cuba's fuel supplies since December 2025, interdicting Venezuelan oil shipments, threatening countries supplying fuel, and deterring Russian supplies. These actions have devastated Cuba's economy, leading to grid collapses, garbage piling up, rotting food, and industrial shutdowns. The article traces this back to a six-decade-long U.S. embargo, strengthened by the Helms-Burton Act of 1996, and criticizes Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.
- The U.S. administration has implemented a blockade on Cuba's fuel supplies since December 2025 to pressure regime change.
- These actions, including interdicting Venezuelan and deterring Russian oil, have severely impacted Cuba's economy, causing power outages and industrial collapse.
- The U.S. embargo against Cuba dates back six decades, strengthened by the Helms-Burton Act of 1996, and includes designating Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Biologics, a growing class of complex drugs, are increasingly used for chronic diseases, but animal models often fail to reliably predict their safety and efficacy in humans. This has prompted a shift towards human-relevant non-animal methodologies (NAMs) like organoids and 3D bioprinting. The 2026 Union Budget's Biopharma SHAKTI strategy aims to boost domestic production of biologics and biosimilars. NAMs can reduce development costs and timelines, but their adoption in India is slow due to challenges in translating innovation to industry, lack of sustained funding, and regulatory hurdles like patent evergreening and slow approval processes. Aligning with industry realities and ensuring regulatory clarity is crucial for India to realize the vision of Biopharma SHAKTI.
- Animal models are often unreliable in predicting the safety and efficacy of biologics in humans, necessitating a shift to non-animal methodologies (NAMs).
- NAMs, such as organoids and 3D bioprinting, are derived from human cells and more accurately replicate human biology.
- The Biopharma SHAKTI strategy, announced in the 2026 Union Budget, aims to boost domestic production of biologics and biosimilars.
A prolonged regional war in West Asia, escalating from U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran, would severely constrain the U.S. due to expended munitions and strained supply chains. The U.S. has already used a significant share of its previous procurements, with some expenditures in six days exceeding FY26 orders. Replenishing these stockpiles would cost billions. Furthermore, the U.S.'s ability to afford the war depends on mineral supply chains, as critical minerals like tungsten, gallium, germanium, and antimony, crucial for military applications, are under constrained supply, with China holding significant leverage. This highlights a strategic vulnerability for the U.S. in sustaining a long-term conflict.
- A prolonged conflict in West Asia would significantly strain U.S. military stockpiles and supply chains.
- The U.S. has expended a substantial portion of its munitions, with some six-day usages surpassing future procurement orders.
- Replenishing these expended weapons would incur costs in billions of dollars for the U.S.
India's Companies Act, 2013, mandated profit-sharing for social good, but environmental needs remain neglected in CSR funding. Recent Supreme Court observations, invoking Article 51A(g), have reframed environmental spending as a constitutional mandate, linking the right to conduct business with the responsibility to restore the planet. An analysis shows a lopsided spending pattern, with education (38%), healthcare (22%), and rural development (10%) receiving the most funds, while environment averages only 7-9%. Corporations often prefer "quick wins" like awareness drives over long-term land-based restoration projects due to their complexity and lack of expert skills. A strategic shift towards an 'ecosystem recovery' strategy, with alliances and long-term financing mechanisms like restoration trusts, is needed for real ecological impact.
- The Supreme Court has mandated environmental spending as a constitutional obligation, linking business rights to planetary restoration, invoking Article 51A(g).
- CSR funding in India shows a significant imbalance, with environmental projects receiving only 7-9% of funds compared to social sectors like education and healthcare.
- Companies often prioritize "quick wins" and easily reportable initiatives over complex, long-term environmental restoration projects.
The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2025 by Transparency International shows a global decline in perceived integrity, with the average score dropping to 42 out of 100. India ranks 91st out of 182 countries with a score of 39, showing stagnation over the past decade despite economic growth. Corruption incurs significant economic costs, estimated at 0.5% to 1.5% of India's GDP annually, diverting resources from crucial sectors. India's complex compliance architecture, with numerous imprisonment provisions in business regulations, also contributes to rent-seeking. While challenges exist, positive trends like digital public infrastructure, e-procurement, and GST network have reduced leakages and increased formalization, demonstrating that technology can reduce discretion.
- The Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 indicates a global decline in perceived integrity, with India stagnating at a score of 39 and rank 91.
- Corruption imposes significant economic costs, estimated to be between 0.5% and 1.5% of India's GDP annually, hindering development.
- India's complex regulatory framework, including numerous imprisonment provisions in business regulations, creates opportunities for rent-seeking.