The PLFS 2025 report indicates positive trends in India's labour market, with increased Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Workforce Participation Rate (WPR), and a decline in unemployment. Improvements are seen in women's participation, especially in rural areas, and a shift towards regular wage and salaried employment, leading to higher earnings for women. However, significant challenges persist, including gaps in education-to-employment transition, limited access to formal skills training, sustained low women's workforce participation due to unpaid work, and a large NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) group among youth.
- The PLFS 2025 report highlights an increase in India's Labour Force Participation Rate and a decrease in unemployment.
- There is a positive shift towards formal salaried employment and improved earnings for women, particularly in regular wage work.
- Significant challenges include the gap between graduates and employment, with only 2.8 million out of 5 million graduates securing jobs annually.
India's economy faces significant capital outflows and rupee depreciation, exacerbated by rising oil prices and global uncertainty, particularly from the Persian Gulf conflict. This situation is concerning as it occurs even without interest rate hikes in the U.S. and U.K., suggesting underlying vulnerabilities. The Prime Minister's call to reduce gold and petrol consumption highlights the external front's challenges, including a widening current account deficit. If foreign central banks raise interest rates, India's external account could face further stress, necessitating policy responses beyond moral suasion.
- India is experiencing significant capital outflows and rupee depreciation due to global uncertainties and rising oil prices.
- The current economic stress is notable because it precedes any interest rate hikes by major foreign central banks.
- A widening current account deficit and potential future interest rate increases abroad could further strain India's external account.
Former Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti emphasized the necessity for India to formulate a comprehensive regional policy for West Asia, moving beyond a country-specific approach. He highlighted the region's critical importance for India's energy security, trade, and the welfare of its diaspora. Tirumurti advocated for a "multi-vector" and "multi-aligned" foreign policy, allowing India to engage with all regional players without taking sides, especially amidst the ongoing West Asia crisis. He stressed that India's approach should prioritize its own strategic autonomy and national interests, leveraging its historical ties and economic influence to contribute to regional stability and address challenges like terrorism and maritime security.
- Former Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti urged India to develop a comprehensive regional policy for West Asia, rather than a country-specific one.
- He emphasized the region's vital importance for India's energy security, trade, and the welfare of its diaspora.
- India should adopt a "multi-vector" and "multi-aligned" foreign policy, engaging with all regional players without bias.
Experts at a discussion on "Economic Disruptions in Sri Lanka" urged India to learn from Sri Lanka's experience with fertilizer supply chain disruptions. Dr. Ramya S. Moorthy highlighted how the sudden shift to organic farming, coupled with global supply chain issues, led to a severe food crisis in Sri Lanka. The panel emphasized the need for India to diversify its fertilizer sources, invest in domestic production, and maintain strategic reserves to ensure food security. They also discussed the broader implications of geopolitical events on supply chains and the importance of prudent management of external sectors to avoid similar crises, especially concerning essential imports like crude oil and fertilizers.
- Experts advised India to learn from Sri Lanka's fertilizer crisis to bolster its own supply chain resilience.
- Sri Lanka's sudden shift to organic farming and global supply chain disruptions caused a severe food crisis.
- India should diversify fertilizer sources, boost domestic production, and maintain strategic reserves for food security.
Experts at a discussion on "India's Diplomacy in West Asia" urged India to step into the geopolitical vacuum created by the U.S.'s reduced engagement in the region. Former Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti emphasized that India's policy in West Asia should be "multi-vector" and "multi-aligned," focusing on its own interests rather than choosing sides. He highlighted the region's importance for India's energy security, trade, and diaspora. The panel also discussed the challenges posed by the ongoing West Asia crisis and the need for India to play a more proactive role in ensuring regional stability, leveraging its historical ties and economic influence. The consensus was that India's approach should be pragmatic and focused on its strategic autonomy.
- Experts advocate for India to fill the geopolitical vacuum left by the U.S. in West Asia.
- Former Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti stressed a "multi-vector" and "multi-aligned" policy for India in the region.
- West Asia is crucial for India's energy security, trade, and large diaspora.
The India-Sri Lanka Business Forum, organized by CII and the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, has identified six key areas for bilateral cooperation: ports, transport and logistics, pharmaceuticals, online payments, travel, and the existing Free Trade Agreement (FTA). These sectors offer immediate investment and trade opportunities, aiming to strengthen economic engagement and explore new avenues. Specific proposals include joint ventures for warehousing, sourcing generic drugs from India's pharma clusters, and exploring cross-border digital payment links. The forum also discussed reviewing the existing FTA to add more products like pharmaceutical raw materials and logistics equipment, with a joint working group on trade facilitation scheduled to meet in August 2026.
- The India-Sri Lanka Business Forum identified six key sectors for bilateral cooperation: logistics, pharma, online payments, travel, ports, and FTA review.
- The initiative aims to strengthen economic engagement and explore new trade and investment opportunities between the two nations.
- Specific proposals include joint ventures in warehousing, sourcing generic drugs, and implementing UPI-like digital payment systems.
The Union Cabinet has approved a ₹37,500-crore package to promote coal gasification, a sustainable alternate mining method. This initiative aims to convert coal into syngas or synthetic gas, which can then be used to produce downstream products like urea, methanol, and ammonia, thereby reducing India's import bill for these key products. India's import bill for such products was approximately ₹2.77 lakh crore in FY2025. The scheme targets gasifying 75 million tonnes of coal and lignite by 2030, offering financial incentives up to ₹9,000 crore per project and extending coal linkage tenure to 30 years to encourage investment.
- The Union Cabinet approved a ₹37,500-crore package to promote coal gasification.
- The scheme aims to convert coal into syngas for producing downstream products like urea and methanol, reducing import dependence.
- India's import bill for these products was ₹2.77 lakh crore in FY2025, highlighting the strategic importance of this initiative.
China's economic strength has dramatically grown to rival that of the U.S., as evidenced by various economic indicators. Its GDP, once 15 times smaller than the U.S. in 1990, is projected to be only 1.5 times smaller by 2025. China has maintained a strong GDP growth rate and significantly higher labour productivity growth compared to the U.S. China has also increased its share in global exports across key sectors and surpassed the U.S. in R&D expenditure by 2024. This economic rise has translated into increased diplomatic influence, with China becoming the world's largest official creditor in 2023 and ranking higher than the U.S. in diplomatic influence and economic relations for 2025.
- China's GDP is projected to be only 1.5 times smaller than the U.S. by 2025, a significant reduction from 15 times in 1990.
- China consistently shows higher GDP growth rates and labour productivity growth compared to the U.S.
- China has increased its global export share in sectors like electronics and minerals and surpassed the U.S. in R&D expenditure by 2024.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs announced an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for kharif crops for the 2026-27 season. The MSP for common paddy has been raised by ₹72 per quintal to ₹2,441, with A-grade paddy at ₹2,461 per quintal. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated that the revised MSPs would ensure returns of about 50% over the cost of production. However, farmer organizations have criticized the new rates, arguing they do not adequately account for the potential "disastrous impact" of the India-U.S. trade deal and other free trade agreements on the agriculture sector.
- The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved increased MSPs for kharif crops for the 2026-27 season.
- MSP for common paddy increased by ₹72 per quintal to ₹2,441.
- The government aims to ensure a 50% return over the cost of production with the revised MSPs.
The Indian government has doubled the effective tax on gold and silver imports from 9.2% to 18.4%, effective Wednesday. This decision, made through two notifications, aims to address India's current account deficit (CAD) exacerbated by the West Asia crisis and protect foreign exchange reserves. Prime Minister Modi had previously urged the public to reduce gold purchases. Industry experts, however, criticize the move as "retrograde" and "blunt," predicting it will likely increase smuggling rather than reduce demand, given gold's cultural significance in India. They also warn of negative impacts on employment and exports in the jewellery sector.
- The effective tax on gold and silver imports has been doubled from 9.2% to 18.4%.
- The government's rationale is to manage the current account deficit (CAD) and safeguard foreign exchange reserves amidst global volatility.
- Industry players and experts believe the hike is a "retrograde" decision that will likely boost smuggling and negatively affect the domestic jewellery sector.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced that the India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is likely to be implemented by June 1, 2026, following a productive meeting with the Omani negotiating team. This agreement, signed in December 2025, aims to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation, connectivity, and trade flows. However, negotiations for the India-Chile Free Trade Agreement have encountered hurdles due to significant differences in the sizes of their economies and opportunities. Goyal indicated that innovative solutions are being sought, contingent on critical minerals and concessions from Chile.
- The India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is expected to be implemented by June 1, 2026.
- Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed this after a meeting with the Omani team.
- The CEPA aims to strengthen India-Oman economic cooperation, connectivity, and trade flows.
Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Prahlad Joshi, announced that a new policy linking fiscal incentives to renewable energy adoption has been accepted by both the Power and Finance ministries. This policy aims to encourage States to sign Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for renewable energy. Joshi emphasized the government's serious efforts to address current issues in renewable energy generation, including grid and transmission constraints. Despite a 7% decline in global renewable investments, India has seen strong investment flows in the sector, indicating its commitment to affordable and reliable green energy.
- A new policy linking fiscal incentives to renewable energy adoption has been accepted by Power and Finance ministries.
- The policy aims to encourage States to sign Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for renewable energy.
- The government is actively working to resolve issues related to grid and transmission constraints in renewable energy generation.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran highlighted a "substantial" gap between the promises of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and the realities of regulatory frameworks. He stated that FTAs create value only upon implementation, not just signing. India has entered into nine trade agreements in the last five years, representing a significant burst of trade diplomacy aimed at diversifying economic relationships and reducing dependence on single markets. However, the CEA stressed the need to address regulatory standards and procedural barriers on both sides with urgency to fully realize the benefits of these agreements.
- CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran noted a significant gap between FTA promises and actual regulatory permissions.
- FTAs generate value only when effectively implemented, not merely upon signing.
- India has signed nine trade agreements in the last five years, aiming to diversify its economic footprint.
A paper in BMJ Global Health argues that structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) imposed by the IMF and World Bank in the 1980s caused severe economic and social damage to countries in the global South. These SAPs, triggered by debt crises and U.S. interest rate hikes, mandated austerity, privatization, and deregulation, reversing post-independence development gains. This led to stagnant incomes, weak public health systems, and increased poverty, with the global South losing an estimated $480 billion annually in potential national income. The authors advocate for reparations and systemic changes, including abolishing SAP conditions and democratizing these institutions, or replacing them with alternatives like the BRICS New Development Bank.
- Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) by IMF and World Bank in the 1980s significantly harmed the global South.
- SAPs mandated austerity, privatization, and deregulation, reversing post-independence development.
- These policies led to stagnant incomes, weak public health systems, and increased poverty in affected regions.
Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri indicated a potential fuel price hike, citing mounting losses for oil-marketing companies (OMCs) due to the prolonged West Asia crisis. OMCs are currently bleeding losses by holding petrol, diesel, and LPG prices firm, with under-recoveries projected to reach up to ₹2 lakh crore this quarter. Puri emphasized that one quarter of losses could wipe out net profits from the previous financial year. He reassured consumers about adequate retail fuel supply but urged diligent use of fuel, echoing PM Modi's call for austerity.
- Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri suggested a potential fuel price hike due to OMCs' mounting losses.
- OMCs are incurring significant under-recoveries by keeping petrol, diesel, and LPG prices firm amidst the West Asia crisis.
- Under-recoveries for OMCs are estimated to reach up to ₹2 lakh crore this quarter.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated to a 13-month high of 3.5% in April 2026, slightly below economists' expectations. This increase was primarily driven by higher food inflation, which climbed to 4% from 3.7% in March, and rising prices in the restaurant and accommodation services sector, up to 4.2% from 2.9%. The price surge reflects the passing on of higher fuel costs to consumers and geopolitical disruptions, alongside the impact of El Nino, clouding the economic outlook despite an ease in transport sector inflation.
- Retail inflation in India reached a 13-month high of 3.5% in April 2026.
- The primary drivers for this inflation were increased food prices and higher costs in the restaurant and accommodation services sector.
- Food and beverages inflation rose to 4% in April from 3.7% in March.
The Union government has notified that the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) [VB-G RAM G] will replace the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) from July 1, repealing all existing rules and guidelines. The new scheme, passed without pre-legislative consultations, increases the statutory employment guarantee from 100 to 125 days annually. However, crucial details like objective parameters for deciding normative budgets and the 60:40 Centre-State expenditure ratio (compared to 100% Centre wage bill under MGNREGA) remain unclear. Concerns also exist regarding e-KYC completion for workers and a new blackout period clause, which could reduce workers' bargaining power.
- The Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) (VB-G RAM G) will replace MGNREGA from July 1.
- The new legislation increases the statutory employment guarantee from 100 to 125 days per financial year.
- A key change is the shift from 100% Central funding for wages under MGNREGA to a 60:40 Centre-State expenditure ratio for most States.
This article, drawing on data from the UDAYA-Understanding the Lives of Adolescents and Young Adults study, examines educational aspirations and outcomes, revealing a significant gender gap. While girls often exhibit higher educational aspirations than boys, this does not consistently translate into higher attainment, particularly in rural areas and among lower-income groups. The study indicates that girls from disadvantaged backgrounds face more barriers to completing higher education. The government's efforts to promote education need to be strengthened with targeted interventions, especially for girls, to bridge the gap between aspirations and actual attainment, ensuring equitable access and support for all students to achieve their full potential.
- Girls generally have higher educational aspirations than boys, but this does not always lead to higher educational attainment.
- A significant gender gap in educational outcomes persists, particularly in rural areas and among disadvantaged communities.
- Structural barriers and socio-economic factors often prevent girls from translating their high aspirations into completed education.
Vietnamese President Tô Lâm's recent visit to India marks a significant moment in deepening India-Vietnam ties, elevating their relationship to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This shift, encompassing defence, technology, finance, and energy agreements, is driven by heightened geopolitical flux in the Indo-Pacific. Vietnam navigates China's assertiveness, while India consolidates its Act East policy. Defence cooperation, including military transfers and training, forms a core pillar. Economic ties are expanding with ambitious trade targets and a focus on supply chain resilience and critical minerals. The partnership contributes to minilateral balancing in the Indo-Pacific and underscores ASEAN's centrality to India's foreign policy, reflecting a mature, multifaceted relationship.
- Vietnamese President Tô Lâm's visit elevated India-Vietnam ties to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
- The partnership is crucial amidst Indo-Pacific geopolitical flux, driven by converging threat perceptions like maritime coercion and supply chain vulnerabilities.
- Defence cooperation, including military transfers and training assistance, forms a backbone of the bilateral relationship.
An editorial critically examines Prime Minister Narendra Modi's seven-point call to action for citizens, suggesting it reveals the severe economic implications of the West Asia crisis. The author questions the timing and content of Modi's message, noting its belated nature after election campaigns and its contradiction of earlier government reassurances. Suggestions like working from home and reducing fuel usage are deemed problematic. The article argues that the government's pre-election decision to maintain stable fuel prices, while welcome, failed to encourage consumption curtailment. Coordinated messaging with industry bodies further indicates a dire economic situation, with some suggestions potentially having negative impacts.
- PM Modi's seven-point call to action suggests a serious economic impact from the West Asia crisis.
- The timing of the Prime Minister's message is criticized for being belated and inconsistent with prior government reassurances.
- Suggestions such as reducing fuel usage and avoiding foreign travel are viewed as potentially ineffective or problematic.
The government has assured that India possesses sufficient stocks of petroleum products and essential commodities, mitigating any need for panic buying despite the ongoing West Asia conflict. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the Informal Group of Ministers (IGOM) meeting, where it was reported that India holds 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of natural gas, and 45 days of LPG rolling stock. India's foreign exchange reserves remain robust at $703 billion. The Centre noted that domestic petroleum prices have remained stable due to Indian oil marketing companies absorbing significant losses, unlike many other nations. Conservation efforts are aimed at boosting long-term preparedness.
- India maintains robust reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and LPG, ensuring uninterrupted supply despite global disruptions.
- The government has reassured the public that there is no reason for anxiety or panic buying of essential commodities.
- Indian oil marketing companies have absorbed substantial losses to keep domestic fuel prices stable amidst international volatility.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar emphasized the primordial importance of maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) for peace, energy security, and livelihoods. He highlighted the region's vulnerability to challenges like piracy, terrorism, and weapons proliferation, stressing the need for a rules-based order and enhanced cooperation among IORA member states. The minister called for collective efforts to address these threats and ensure stability, recognizing the IOR as central to India's strategic interests and global trade, and crucial for regional economic development.
- Maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is crucial for global peace, energy security, and economic livelihoods.
- The IOR faces significant threats including piracy, maritime terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons.
- A rules-based international order and enhanced cooperation among littoral states are essential to address these challenges.
Despite the 2016 demonetisation, fake Indian currency notes (FICN) continue to be a significant problem, with their prevalence increasing in certain denominations like ₹500 and ₹2000. Data from the RBI and NCRB indicate that while overall detection initially decreased, it has risen again, particularly in the banking system. The article highlights the ongoing efforts of law enforcement agencies and the challenges in combating the circulation of counterfeit notes, with Maharashtra consistently reporting the highest seizures, underscoring the persistent threat to the economy.
- Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) continue to circulate despite the 2016 demonetisation, posing an ongoing challenge.
- Detection of counterfeit ₹500 and ₹2000 notes has increased significantly in recent years.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) collect and report data on FICN seizures.
The article highlights the persistently high opportunity cost of accessing medical care in India, exacerbated by the new Labour Codes. It discusses the Union Labour Ministry's initiative for free annual health check-ups and the role of ESIC hospitals, but points out that many workers, especially women, still face significant barriers. Challenges include the need for signed medical check-ups for women, overcrowding in ESIC camps, and the lack of focus on non-communicable diseases and proactive vaccination under the new codes, indicating a need for more comprehensive and accessible healthcare solutions.
- Accessing medical care in India continues to have a high opportunity cost, impacting workers' well-being and productivity.
- The new Labour Codes, specifically the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSH) Code 2020, aim to improve worker health but have limitations.
- The ESIC fund and facilities are crucial for providing medical benefits, but issues like overcrowding and specific requirements for women workers persist.