OPEC, once a dominant force in global oil markets, is facing internal divisions and external pressures that are eroding its influence. The cartel's unity has been challenged by members' differing economic needs and production capacities, with countries like the UAE seeking greater autonomy. The rise of non-OPEC producers, particularly the U.S. shale industry, and the global shift towards renewable energy further complicate OPEC's role. While the organization has adapted by forming OPEC+, its ability to stabilize markets and dictate prices is diminishing, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty in the oil sector. This analysis suggests a future where OPEC's power may continue to wane, impacting global energy geopolitics.
- OPEC's influence is diminishing due to internal divisions and external pressures.
- Members like the UAE seek greater autonomy, challenging the cartel's unity.
- The rise of non-OPEC producers, especially U.S. shale, and renewable energy shift impact OPEC.
The UAE's recent decision to withdraw from OPEC+ and OPEC stems from a desire for greater autonomy over its oil production and export policies, aiming to maximize revenue and pursue its own economic agenda. The UAE has historically sought higher production quotas than allocated by OPEC, viewing the restrictions as hindering its economic growth and diversification efforts. While the move offers the UAE flexibility, it could destabilize global oil markets and weaken OPEC's influence. The UAE's strategic partnerships and its role as a regional economic hub suggest a calculated move to assert its economic sovereignty and adapt to evolving global energy dynamics.
- The UAE withdrew from OPEC+ and OPEC to gain autonomy over oil production and export policies.
- The UAE has historically sought higher production quotas than allocated by OPEC.
- The move aims to maximize revenue and support its economic diversification agenda.
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) acquired a 51% stake in Sri Lanka's Colombo Dockyard PLC (CDPLC) for ₹250 crore, marking India's first international shipyard acquisition. This move significantly boosts India's maritime presence in the Indian Ocean Region and is strategically and commercially important for both nations. The acquisition, which infused $40 million into CDPLC, has addressed financial strains faced by the Sri Lankan company and expanded its access to global markets and Indian clients. MDL plans to expand ship repair operations and explore opportunities in other Sri Lankan ports, while clarifying that CDPLC will remain commercial and not be used for defence manufacturing.
- Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) acquired a 51% stake in Colombo Dockyard PLC (CDPLC) in Sri Lanka.
- This is India's first international shipyard acquisition, enhancing its maritime presence in the Indian Ocean Region.
- The acquisition, valued at ₹250 crore, has revitalized CDPLC, which faced financial difficulties.
Rohit Jain has been appointed as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for a three-year term, replacing T. Rabi Sankar, whose extended tenure ended on Saturday. Mr. Jain, currently an Executive Director at the RBI, was approved by the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet. As per the RBI Act, 1934, the RBI is mandated to have four Deputy Governors, with specific roles for two from within the ranks, a commercial banker, and an economist. This appointment ensures the continuity of leadership in the central bank's monetary policy and regulatory functions.
- Rohit Jain has been appointed as RBI Deputy Governor for a three-year term.
- He replaces T. Rabi Sankar, whose extended tenure ended.
- Mr. Jain was previously an Executive Director at the RBI.
India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue hit an all-time high of ₹2.43 lakh crore in April 2026, marking an 8.7% increase over the previous year. This surge was primarily attributed to a nearly 26% growth in collections from imports, while domestic sales collections grew at a slower rate of 4.3%. Tax experts noted that April collections, reflecting March activity, typically peak due to financial year-end targets. Despite global uncertainties, this performance indicates a resilient GST regime, with net collections standing at ₹2.11 lakh crore after refunds.
- GST revenue for April 2026 reached an all-time high of ₹2.43 lakh crore, showing an 8.7% year-on-year growth.
- The significant growth was largely attributed to a nearly 26% increase in collections from imports.
- Domestic sales collections grew at a slower rate of 4.3% to ₹1.85 lakh crore.
The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+, a cartel it joined in 1967, seeking autonomy to increase oil exports. As OPEC's fourth-largest producer and third-largest exporter, the UAE aims to funnel higher revenues into infrastructure and diversification projects. This move is also driven by frustration over the lack of cartel-wide coordination in responding to Iran's missile and drone attacks on Gulf oil facilities, and differences with Saudi Arabia on external interventions in Yemen and Sudan. The UAE also seeks closer ties with Israel. The exit reflects a structural issue for OPEC, whose global crude share dropped to 36.7% in 2025, and whose pricing power has shifted to American producers. For net oil-importing countries like India, the immediate threat is not OPEC's unravelling but the "double blockade" in the Strait of Hormuz and the fragile Iran-U.S. ceasefire.
- The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+ to gain autonomy in increasing oil production and exports.
- The decision is partly influenced by the UAE's frustration with OPEC's lack of coordinated response to Iranian attacks on Gulf oil facilities.
- Differences with Saudi Arabia on regional interventions and closer ties with Israel also contributed to the UAE's move.
India concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand in December 2025, marking a significant shift in its foreign trade policy towards strategic, high-velocity partnerships. This FTA, one of India's fastest, offers a first-mover advantage in Oceania and signals India's efficiency in trade diplomacy. Key wins include talent mobility provisions like annual quotas for professional visas and work-and-holiday visas, and international recognition of AYUSH systems. The agreement also commits to $20 billion in capital inflow over 15 years in high-priority sectors, supporting the "Make in India" programme. Crucially, India successfully shielded its sensitive dairy sector while securing market access for high-value dairy products. The FTA also ensures protection for Indian Geographical Indication products and establishes India as a logistical and regulatory reference point in the South Pacific.
- India concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand in December 2025, reflecting a strategic shift in its trade policy.
- The FTA includes significant provisions for talent mobility, such as professional and work-and-holiday visas, and mutual recognition of traditional health systems.
- It anticipates a capital inflow of $20 billion over 15 years into high-priority sectors in India, bolstering the "Make in India" initiative.
This May Day analysis highlights the precarious state of Indian labour, citing two recent events: a protest by garment workers in Noida demanding higher minimum wages and a fatal boiler explosion at a Vedanta plant in Chhattisgarh. These incidents underscore the impact of India's new labour regime, which consolidated 29 central labour laws into four codes in November 2025. Critics argue these reforms, including increased thresholds for layoffs and diluted inspection mechanisms, favour employers and reduce worker protections. The article contends that the reforms have not rationalized protection but rather removed it, leading to wage stagnation and unsafe working conditions, as exemplified by the Noida strike and the Singhitarai accident.
- May Day serves as a diagnostic for the state of Indian labour, marked by recent worker protests and industrial accidents.
- India's new labour regime, enacted in November 2025, consolidated 29 central labour laws into four codes.
- The reforms are criticized for raising thresholds for layoffs and diluting safety oversight, potentially favouring employers over workers.
The Union Finance Ministry has cautioned that states with revenue deficits and high debt burdens will struggle with fiscal shocks, potentially forcing them to reprioritise expenditure or seek more central funds. A report for April indicates nine out of 18 large states are projected to be in revenue deficit by 2026-27. Revenue deficit occurs when recurring expenditures like salaries, pensions, and subsidies exceed earned revenue. These states are constrained by debt servicing obligations, with some spending over 15% of revenue receipts on interest payments. Punjab has the highest projected ratio at 22.8%. States with both revenue deficits and high liabilities have less fiscal flexibility.
- The Union Finance Ministry has cautioned that states with revenue deficits and high debt burdens are vulnerable to fiscal shocks.
- Nine out of 18 large states are projected to be in revenue deficit by 2026-27, according to the Monthly Economic Review for April.
- A revenue deficit arises when recurring expenditures surpass revenue from taxes and fees.
The latest NSS data (80th round) reveals that despite a significant increase in health insurance coverage, hospitalisation rates haven't risen proportionally, and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure has sharply increased, especially in the private sector. Government-funded health insurance (GFHI) schemes like PMJAY have expanded coverage, but more people are shifting to private care, where costs are much higher. The article highlights that GFHI schemes, while targeting backward sections, disproportionately benefit the better-off in terms of service utilization. It argues that these schemes, by subsidizing private care, fail to protect households from financial hardship and suggests a need to strengthen the public healthcare system instead.
- Despite increased health insurance coverage, hospitalisation rates have not significantly increased, and OOP expenditure has risen sharply.
- A growing proportion of people are opting for private sector healthcare, where costs are considerably higher.
- Government-funded health insurance schemes (GFHI) like PMJAY have expanded coverage but are not effectively reducing financial hardship.
The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is set to launch E-PRAAPTI (EPF Aadhaar-Based Access Portal for Tracking Inoperative Accounts), a dedicated digital platform. This portal aims to facilitate the identification, tracking, UAN linking, and activation of old EPF accounts. It will provide a streamlined Aadhaar-based authentication mechanism, enabling members to securely access accounts without a linked UAN and initiate profile updates. Initially, it will be member ID-based, reducing manual intervention, documentation, and enhancing transparency. EPFO also settled a record 8.31 crore claims in 2025-26, with 71.11% of advance claims processed in auto mode, demonstrating improved efficiency.
- EPFO is launching E-PRAAPTI, a digital platform to manage inoperative EPF accounts.
- The portal will use Aadhaar-based authentication to help members access and activate their old accounts.
- E-PRAAPTI aims to reduce manual intervention, minimize documentation, and enhance transparency and efficiency in EPF services.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 594-km Ganga Expressway in Hardoi, Uttar Pradesh, calling it a "new lifeline" for the state's connectivity and employment. Built at an approximate cost of ₹36,230 crore, the six-lane access-controlled expressway will significantly reduce travel time between Meerut and Prayagraj to about six hours. The project is expected to boost farmers' income by improving market access for their produce and contribute to Uttar Pradesh's goal of becoming a one-trillion-dollar economy. The PM highlighted the state's rapid infrastructure development, including expressways, airports, industrial corridors, and defence manufacturing, making it a key investment destination.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 594-km Ganga Expressway in Hardoi, Uttar Pradesh.
- The expressway is a six-lane access-controlled project aimed at significantly reducing travel time between Meerut and Prayagraj.
- It is expected to boost Uttar Pradesh's economy by improving market access for farmers and attracting investments.
The article, penned by Shashi Tharoor, argues that the war in Iran has devastated the country and shattered the Gulf region's long-held image as a stable haven for capital and trade. This conflict has triggered global economic consequences, including surging fuel prices, LPG/LNG shortages, and disruptions to supply chains, affecting Indian manufacturers and the working class. The Gulf's vulnerability is exposed, with businesses reconsidering expansion, capital flows hesitating, and migrant labour facing uncertainty. The war has undermined confidence in the region's security, impacting trade routes and investments, and highlighting India's deep entanglement with the Gulf's stability.
- The war in Iran has caused widespread physical destruction and crippled vital infrastructure within the country.
- The conflict has triggered significant global economic repercussions, including rising fuel prices and supply chain disruptions.
- The Gulf region's perceived stability and economic resilience have been shattered, leading to uncertainty for capital, businesses, and migrant labour.
The India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA), though seemingly small due to New Zealand's economy size, is strategically significant as it's one of eight recent trade deals. India aims to diversify supply chains and export destinations, moving away from reliance on China and mitigating risks from volatile markets like the US. The FTA's strengths include New Zealand immediately removing all goods tariffs and India avoiding concessions on sensitive sectors like dairy. New Zealand also committed to facilitating $20 billion in investments in India over 15 years, similar to the EFTA pact's $100 billion commitment. This deal supports India's goals of increasing exports, creating jobs, and bolstering its capital account.
- The India-New Zealand FTA is part of India's broader strategy to diversify trade relations and reduce dependence on specific markets.
- New Zealand will immediately remove all goods tariffs upon the agreement's execution, benefiting Indian exporters.
- India successfully avoided providing concessions on sensitive sectors, notably dairy, which New Zealand was keen to include.
The U.S. war on Iran has evolved into a "battle of wills" over the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, characterized by naval blockades and stalled diplomacy. Iran has restricted traffic through the Strait since the US-Israel attacks on February 28, refusing to ease control until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Despite a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes continue, and the US maintains its blockade, hoping economic pressure will force Iran to yield. The article advocates for a phased, reciprocal de-escalation: the US lifting its blockade and Iran reopening the Strait to commercial shipping, to reinforce the fragile ceasefire and build confidence for future talks.
- The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has intensified into a standoff over control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
- Iran has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Israel attacks, demanding the US lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
- Diplomatic efforts, mediated by Pakistan, have stalled, with Iran refusing further direct talks with Washington.
The UAE announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group, effective May 1. This decision, driven by the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision, aims to accelerate investment in domestic energy production and allow it to act responsibly by bringing additional production to market gradually, aligned with demand. The move follows years of the UAE pushing back against production quotas it felt were too low. The exit is not expected to have immediate market effects due to constrained oil supplies from the war in Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz.
- The UAE is withdrawing from OPEC and OPEC+ to pursue its long-term strategic and economic vision, focusing on domestic energy production.
- The decision allows the UAE to increase oil production independently, addressing its past dissatisfaction with low OPEC quotas.
- The immediate market impact is expected to be minimal due to existing oil supply constraints from the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to a five-month low of 4.1% in March 2026, primarily due to a near-halving in construction sector growth and low growth in consumer-centric sectors. This slowdown has been observed since January 2026, even before the West Asia crisis began. For the full financial year 2025-26, IIP growth was 4.1%, marginally faster than the previous year. Manufacturing sector growth also slowed to 4.3% in March, while capital goods accelerated to a 29-month high of 14.6%, indicating intact investment-led demand despite muted consumer non-durables growth.
- India's industrial output growth, measured by the IIP, reached a five-month low of 4.1% in March 2026.
- The slowdown is attributed to reduced growth in construction and consumer-centric sectors.
- Despite the overall slowdown, the capital goods sector showed robust growth, indicating sustained investment-led demand.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised its rules for classifying bad loans, or Non-Performing Assets (NPAs), to align with globally accepted standards. Effective April 1, 2027, the new Master Directions stipulate that if one loan of a borrower is classified as an NPA, all other loans of that borrower will also be considered NPAs. An NPA borrower will only be reclassified as a 'standard asset' upon repayment of all outstanding interest and principal across all credit facilities. The 90-day overdue rule for initial NPA classification remains unchanged, and banks are mandated to establish automated systems to identify NPAs.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised its bad loan classification rules to align with global standards.
- Effective April 1, 2027, if one loan of a borrower becomes an NPA, all other loans of that borrower will also be classified as NPA.
- A borrower will only be considered a 'standard asset' after repaying all arrears of interest and principal across all credit facilities.
Tamil Nadu has achieved double-digit real economic growth for the second consecutive year, posting 11.19% in 2024-25 and 10.83% in 2025-26, significantly surpassing the national average of 7.4%. The state's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at current prices is projected to reach ₹35.29 lakh crore in 2025-26, marking a 13.16% nominal growth. This strong performance is driven by robust growth in the secondary (15%), services (8.5%), and primary (6%) sectors, with agriculture showing a notable turnaround.
- Tamil Nadu has recorded double-digit real economic growth for two consecutive years.
- The state's growth rates were 11.19% in 2024-25 and 10.83% in 2025-26, significantly exceeding the national average.
- Tamil Nadu's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is projected to reach ₹35.29 lakh crore in 2025-26, making it India's second-largest state economy.
India and New Zealand have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), hailed as a historic step to deepen trade, investment, and people-to-people ties. New Zealand will remove tariffs on all Indian goods, while India will reduce or remove tariffs on 95% of its current imports from New Zealand. The deal, announced in March 2025 and concluded in December 2025, is one of India's fastest negotiated FTAs. It also includes provisions for mobility of professionals and students, and a commitment from New Zealand to facilitate $20 billion in investments into India.
- India and New Zealand have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to boost trade, investment, and people-to-people ties.
- New Zealand will eliminate tariffs on all goods imported from India, while India will reduce or remove tariffs on 95% of current imports from New Zealand.
- Key products excluded by India from tariff reductions include dairy, animal products (other than sheep meat), agricultural products, sugar, artificial honey, copper, and aluminium.
Sri Lanka is inviting Expressions of Interest from domestic and international investors to operate its loss-making Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (MRIA) in Hambantota. The airport, built with a nearly $200-million Chinese loan under former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been commercially unviable since its 2013 launch, accumulating a net loss of approximately $130 million. Despite previous interest from India and Russia for joint ventures, proposals did not materialize. The government aims to utilize the airport's resources, which currently handles no scheduled flights, only charter planes, highlighting the need for external investment to make it viable.
- Sri Lanka is seeking investors to operate its loss-making Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (MRIA).
- The airport was built with a nearly $200-million loan from China.
- MRIA has accumulated a net loss of approximately $130 million since its launch in 2013.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi lauded India's progress in nuclear and wind energy sectors during his 'Mann ki Baat' address. He highlighted the achievement of criticality in the fast breeder nuclear reactor at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, calling it a 'historic milestone' and emphasizing its indigenous technology. Modi also noted India's rapid advancement in wind energy, with generation capacity exceeding 56 gigawatts (GW) and ranking fourth globally. He mentioned the creation of new opportunities and skills for youth in this sector, contributing to sustainable economic growth.
- PM Modi praised India's achievement of criticality in the fast breeder nuclear reactor at Kalpakkam.
- The fast breeder nuclear reactor is built entirely with indigenous technology.
- India's wind energy generation capacity has exceeded 56 GW.
India and New Zealand are set to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday. This agreement will remove tariffs on 100% of India's exports to New Zealand and significantly reduce or remove tariffs on 95% of current imports from New Zealand. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted the pact as a defining moment in bilateral relations. The deal will provide immediate duty-free access for India on 100% of tariff lines, down from New Zealand's previous 10% tariff on about 450 Indian export items. India has managed to keep several sensitive items, including all dairy products, out of the FTA.
- India and New Zealand will sign an FTA on Monday.
- The FTA will eliminate tariffs on 100% of India's exports to New Zealand.
- Tariffs on 95% of current imports from New Zealand will be sharply reduced or removed.
Ashok Kumar Lahiri, an economist and MLA from West Bengal, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairperson of NITI Aayog. He replaces Suman K. Bery, who held the position since May 2022. Lahiri, a former Chief Economic Adviser, joins a re-constituted panel that includes K.V. Raju, M. Srinivas, Abhay Karandikar, Gobardhan Das, and Rajiv Gauba as full-time members. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is the Chairman of NITI Aayog, expressed confidence that Lahiri's efforts will further energize policymaking and foster cooperative federalism, enhancing ease of living in India.
- Ashok Kumar Lahiri has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairperson of NITI Aayog.
- He is an economist and an MLA from West Bengal, previously serving as Chief Economic Adviser.
- Lahiri replaces Suman K. Bery, who held the post since May 2022.