The IMD is Conservative When It Comes to Projecting Rainfall Deficit
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) initially forecasted a 'below normal' monsoon of 90% to 95% of the average, which proved conservative given its models pointed to deficient rains below 90% amid strong El Niño conditions. When the monsoon ended on September 30, India received 759 mm across the country, which is 87% of the normal 869 mm. While national figures sit near error margins, disaggregated regional data revealed sharp discrepancies, with the northeast recording its driest season since 1901. Climate change and western disturbances further complicated seasonal predictability, highlighting the need for improved sub-regional forecasting systems.
Key Points
- The IMD's initial seasonal forecast of 'below normal' rainfall was conservative compared to its actual deficit models.
- India's final monsoon tally ended at 87% of the normal 869 mm, falling into the deficient category.
- Regional disparities were severe, including the northeast experiencing its driest season since 1901.
- Climate change, El Niño, and western disturbances significantly impact rainfall predictability and agricultural sowing.
Exam Facts
- The nationwide monsoon tally ended at 759 mm, which is 87% of the normal 869 mm.
- The IMD forecasted 90% to 95% of the average rainfall before the monsoon season.
- Kharif sowing trailed last year's by 16% on July 10, narrowing to under 2% by early September.
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