El Niño to strain India's power system, impacting wind and hydropower output
An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) projects that El Niño conditions will significantly strain India's power system. Weaker wind and hydropower output, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could create a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh over the next year. This shortfall, though less than 1% of total annual output, is likely to be filled by a surge in coal-fired power, leading to an estimated 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. CREA urges faster adoption of batteries and grid upgrades to meet future demand surges with clean energy, criticizing the curtailment of solar and wind power in 2025-26.
Key Points
- El Niño conditions are projected to strain India's power system, leading to weaker wind and hydropower output.
- A generation gap of nearly 18 TWh is anticipated over the next year due to reduced renewable output and increased demand for air conditioning.
- This shortfall is likely to be met by a surge in coal-fired power, potentially releasing 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
- CREA advocates for faster adoption of battery storage and grid upgrades to integrate more clean energy and meet demand.
- In 2025-26, grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind power, which could have been averted with battery storage.
Exam Facts
- Analysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
- Projected generation gap: nearly 18 TWh (terawatt hour).
- Estimated carbon dioxide emissions: 17 million tonnes from coal-fired power.
- India's total electricity generation in 2025-26: about 1,846 billion units.
- Non-fossil sources supplied 29.2% of generation in 2025-26.
- Installed capacity as on March 31: 283.46 GW non-fossil (150.26 GW solar, 56.09 GW wind, 51.41 GW large hydro, 8.78 GW nuclear).
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