IMD forecasts below normal rain in July, with 40% current deficit due to El Niño
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts "below normal" rainfall for July, with a current monsoon deficit of 40%. June rainfall was the fifth lowest since 1901, primarily attributed to the El Niño phenomenon. This poses significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, and hydropower generation. While the first week of July may see some good rainfall, the broader outlook remains bleak. Despite good monsoons in the last two years leading to some reservoir surpluses, higher evaporation due to low rains and high temperatures could quickly deplete these reserves, exacerbating water scarcity.
Key Points
- IMD forecasts "below normal" rainfall for July, with a 40% current monsoon deficit, impacting agriculture and water resources.
- El Niño's development in June negatively impacted rainfall, making it the fifth lowest June since 1901.
- The overall outlook for July is bleak despite potential good rainfall in the first week, raising concerns about rapid water reservoir depletion.
- Kharif crop area has declined by 22% compared to last year, and water reservoirs hold 25% less water than in June 2025.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to be 'neutral,' offering no significant amelioration to El Niño's impact.
Exam Facts
- IMD Director-General: Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
- June rainfall of 99.5 mm was the fifth lowest since 1901 and the least since 2014.
- Kharif crop area declined 22% compared to the same time last year.
- Water reservoirs had 25% less water than in June 2025, but 5% more than the 10-year average for June.
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