South Korea's population decline: Fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration challenges
South Korea faces a drastic population decline, projected to halve by 2100 to 22 million people from 52 million in 2026, according to UN projections. This article explores the dramatic changes needed in fertility rates, life expectancy, or migration to maintain a constant population. It highlights that fertility rates have plummeted from six children per woman in 1960 to 0.75 today, requiring a reversal to 2.1 by 2050 for stability. Alternatively, life expectancy would need to increase by 50 years to 130 by 2050, or net migration would need to be seven times higher than current rates, making a strong reversal in fertility rates the most realistic yet unprecedented scenario.
Key Points
- South Korea's population is projected to halve by 2100, declining from 52 million in 2026 to 22 million.
- To maintain a constant population, South Korea's fertility rate needs to reverse dramatically to 2.1 children per woman by 2050.
- Alternatively, average life expectancy would need to increase by 50 years to 130 by 2050, which is an extremely rapid improvement.
- Another option is a seven-fold increase in net migration, reaching about nine immigrants per 1,000 people annually.
- A strong reversal in fertility rates, though unprecedented in its scale, is considered the most realistic scenario among the three.
Exam Facts
- South Korea's population is projected to be 22 million by 2100, down from 52 million in 2026 (UN projections).
- South Korea's fertility rate declined from six children per woman in 1960 to 0.75 today.
- A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is generally considered the replacement level for a stable population.
- South Korea's current net migration rate is around 1.3 people per 1,000 residents annually.
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