What a 'super' El Niño might mean for India's monsoon
The U.S. NOAA confirmed an El Niño has formed, with a 63% chance of becoming a 'very strong' event. This article explores how such an event might impact India's monsoon, which has already seen a 35% deficit in June rainfall. El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific, tends to weaken the South Asian monsoon. Historically, 'very strong' El Niño years (e.g., 1972-73, 1982-83, 2015-16) have often correlated with severe droughts in India, though the 1997-98 event was an exception due to the Indian Ocean Dipole. The current forecast suggests the Indian Ocean Dipole may not be strong enough to counter the Niño's drying effect this year.
Key Points
- A 'very strong' El Niño event is forecast, raising concerns for India's monsoon.
- El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, weakening the South Asian monsoon.
- Historical data shows a strong correlation between El Niño years and deficient rainfall, often leading to droughts in India.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole can sometimes counter El Niño's drying effect, but it is not expected to be strong enough this year.
- El Niño also redistributes tropical cyclones globally, generally suppressing Atlantic hurricanes while making conditions more favourable for Pacific typhoons.
- Contemporary climate change makes modern El Niño events more intense than those recorded in the past.
Exam Facts
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the El Niño.
- There is about a 63% chance of it strengthening into a 'very strong' event.
- IMD's D.S. Pai classifies El Niño strength based on sea-surface temperature departures (0.5-1°C weak, >2°C very strong).
- Record El Niño years include 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
- India's worst droughts in El Niño years include 1972, 1982, 2009, and 2015.
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