Monsoon onset over Kerala expected around June 4, IMD revises forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, now expecting it around June 4. This overshoots the previously predicted May 26 arrival and marks a rare instance since 2015 that the IMD has failed to accurately predict the monsoon's Kerala arrival. Conditions are favorable for the monsoon's advance into parts of the Arabian Sea, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and the Bay of Bengal, aided by an upper-air cyclonic circulation. The IMD also noted that the monsoon season is already forecast below normal, at 90% of the long-period average, under a building El Niño.
Key Points
- The IMD has revised its monsoon onset forecast for Kerala to around June 4, deviating from its earlier prediction of May 26.
- This marks a rare instance since 2015 where the IMD's operational onset forecasts, usually accurate, have missed the mark.
- Favorable conditions, including an upper-air cyclonic circulation, are expected to facilitate the monsoon's advance.
- The monsoon season is anticipated to be below normal, at 90% of the long-period average, influenced by an emerging El Niño.
- The IMD declares monsoon onset based on rainfall at designated stations, westerly winds, and outgoing long-wave radiation.
Exam Facts
- IMD revised monsoon onset forecast for Kerala to June 4.
- Previous forecast was May 26, with a model error of plus or minus four days.
- The monsoon season is forecast below normal, at 90% of the long-period average.
- Onset criteria include 60% of 14 designated stations recording 2.5 mm rainfall for two consecutive days, westerly winds up to 600 hPa, and outgoing long-wave radiation below 200 W/m².
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