IMD lowers 2026 monsoon outlook to 90% LPA, delays Kerala onset to June
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from 92% projected in April. The IMD also acknowledged that the monsoon's arrival in Kerala would be delayed beyond the predicted May 26, now "likely arrive" in the first week of June. This rainfall downgrade places India's principal water source firmly into "below-normal" territory, raising the probability of a "deficient" monsoon (rain under 90% of LPA) to 60%. This situation entrenches fears of a potential drought.
Key Points
- The IMD has revised down its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- The onset date for the monsoon in Kerala has been pushed to the first week of June, missing the initial May 26 prediction.
- The forecast indicates a "below-normal" monsoon, with a 60% probability of a "deficient" monsoon.
- A deficient monsoon could lead to drought conditions, impacting agriculture and water sources.
- The IMD noted that the monsoon system is steadily advancing, currently about 100 km away from the Kerala coast.
Exam Facts
- The 2026 southwest monsoon forecast is 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- The probability of a "deficient" monsoon (rain under 90% of LPA) is 60%.
- Mrutyunjay Mohapatra is the Director-General of IMD.
- The IMD erred in its Kerala onset forecast from 2005-2025 only in 2015.
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