IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon for 2026, warns of potential for extreme rainfall events
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an above-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected to be 106% of the long period average (LPA). This forecast is based on a new multi-model ensemble (MME) system, which integrates various global climate models. While an above-normal monsoon is beneficial for agriculture, the IMD also warns of an increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events, which can lead to floods. The IMD highlights a trend of rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, necessitating improved disaster preparedness and water management strategies. The new MME system aims to provide more accurate and localised forecasts.
Key Points
- The IMD has predicted an above-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- This forecast is based on a new multi-model ensemble (MME) system, integrating global climate models for improved accuracy.
- Despite the positive outlook for agriculture, the IMD warns of an increased probability of extreme rainfall events and associated flooding.
- The IMD emphasizes the need for better disaster preparedness and water management due to the rising trend of extreme weather events.
Exam Facts
- IMD forecasts 106% of LPA for the 2026 monsoon.
- The new forecasting system is a multi-model ensemble (MME) system.
- The LPA is calculated based on rainfall data from 1971-2020.
- The IMD's first stage forecast for the monsoon was issued on April 15.
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