Data analysis reveals proposed delimitation based on 2011 Census would redraw India's political map
This data-driven analysis examines how the proposed delimitation, based on the 2011 Census population and an increased Lok Sabha strength of 850 seats, would redistribute parliamentary representation. It highlights that Southern and North-Eastern states would significantly lose their share, while Hindi-heartland states would gain disproportionately. For example, Uttar Pradesh could gain 13 seats, while Tamil Nadu could lose 11 and Kerala 8. This asymmetry stems from differing Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), with Southern states having TFRs below replacement level (2.1) and many Hindi-heartland states remaining above. The article points out the tension between Article 81(2)(a), which rewards demographic weight, and developmental achievement in population control.
Key Points
- Proposed delimitation based on the 2011 Census and an 850-seat Lok Sabha would significantly alter state-wise representation.
- Southern and North-Eastern states are projected to lose parliamentary seat share, while Hindi-heartland states would gain.
- This redistribution is primarily due to varying Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) across states, reflecting different population growth patterns.
- The analysis highlights a conflict between constitutional provisions rewarding demographic weight and states' achievements in population control.
Exam Facts
- The proposed Lok Sabha strength is 850 seats (815 from States, 35 from UTs).
- The delimitation would be based on the 2011 Census population.
- Article 81(2)(a) mandates population-proportional allocation of seats.
- NFHS-5 (2019-21) data shows Southern states have TFRs between 1.5 and 1.8, below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Uttar Pradesh could gain 13 seats, Bihar 10, while Tamil Nadu could lose 11, and Kerala 8.
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