IMD forecasts 'below normal' southwest monsoon for first time in 11 years
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a "below-normal" southwest monsoon for 2026, forecasting only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm rainfall. This marks the first such forecast in 11 years. The primary reason cited is the likely development of an El Niño, a periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific, expected to fully impact in the second half of the monsoon. Insufficient rain could significantly affect rainfed farming, especially with anticipated disruptions in fertilizer supply due to the West Asia war.
Key Points
- The IMD has forecast a "below-normal" southwest monsoon for 2026, predicting 92% of the LPA rainfall.
- This is the first "below-normal" monsoon forecast by IMD in 11 years.
- The primary cause is the likely development of an El Niño, expected to fully manifest in the latter half of the monsoon season.
- Insufficient rainfall could severely impact rainfed farming and exacerbate challenges from fertilizer supply disruptions.
- Two factors, a 'positive' Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and reduced northern hemisphere snow cover, might blunt El Niño's negative impact.
Exam Facts
- IMD forecast for 2026 monsoon: 92% of LPA.
- LPA rainfall: 87 cm.
- Last "below-normal" forecast: 2015 (actual 86% vs forecast 93%).
- Monsoon months: June-September.
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