Nicobar project EIA downplays earthquake risks despite scientific warnings
The Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) study for the ₹72,000-crore Great Nicobar Infrastructure Project (GNIP) downplays the risk of future mega-earthquakes and tsunamis, stating the probability is "low." This contradicts some scientists who point to uncertainties in earthquake prediction and insufficient site-specific studies in the highly geo-dynamic Andaman-Sumatra fault line region. While the EIA cites a 2019 IIT-Kanpur study on return periods for mega-earthquakes (420-750 years), it omits the study's caveat about uncertainty due to a 2,000-year gap in sediment history. Experts like C.P. Rajendran emphasize the non-linear nature of earthquake recurrence and the presence of unknown parallel rupture lines, urging site-specific analysis for vulnerable infrastructure projects like the proposed transshipment port and international airport.
Key Points
- The EIA for the Great Nicobar Infrastructure Project (GNIP) assesses the probability of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis as "low," despite the region's high seismic activity.
- Scientists express concern over the EIA's downplaying of risks, citing uncertainties in earthquake prediction and insufficient site-specific studies.
- The EIA selectively uses findings from an IIT-Kanpur study, omitting caveats about the unpredictability of future earthquakes.
- Experts recommend thorough site-specific analyses for major infrastructure projects in this geo-dynamically active area.
- The GNIP includes a transshipment port, international airport, township, and power plant, raising environmental concerns.
Exam Facts
- The project is the Great Nicobar Infrastructure Project (GNIP), valued at ₹72,000 crore.
- The EIA was commissioned by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation and executed by Vimta Labs.
- An IIT-Kanpur study from 2019 is referenced regarding earthquake return periods (420-750 years for magnitude 9+).
- C.P. Rajendran, geo-scientist and Professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, raised concerns.
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